111 Shadow Hill Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$225,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1993 6,969 sqft lot Est $193k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

as soon as you walk into this updated home you will be delighted with the natural light! It sits on a large lot with a shop that is wired so awesome storage! There is a patio for entertaining and privacy and a fully fenced backyard that backs to woods! Vinyl flooring, real fireplace, separate laundry room and an open plan! Neutral colors so move in ready !!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport (1 space); Garage faces front; Concrete parking surfaces; Total 1 parking space
• Security: Deadbolt lock(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One-and-a-half story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Vinyl and brick exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Fenced backyard (wood); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows; Deadbolt locks; Wood-burning fireplace in the den
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,584
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Hidden Crst	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,055 (-1%)	14mo	$185,000	$175	70
115 Haley Creek Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	14mo	$209,900	$175	53
121 Summit Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (+6%)	12mo	$205,000	$181	47
101 Haley Creek Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-15%)	16mo	$172,000	$190	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,274
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $26,336
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 190.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$447
• After-tax cash flow: $5,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+144.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-07-06 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-07-06 Listed $199,900 MLSU
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-06-08 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2013-10-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-03-26 Listed $90,000 MLSU
• 2012-07-05 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2012-04-22 Listed $105,000 MLSU
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2003-03-27 Listed $92,000 MLSU
• 1993-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · -32.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.