3205 Hickory Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1990 4,547 sqft lot Est $147k · at est. $217/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully furnished and nicely maintained doublewide manufactured mobile home in Timberlake Estates - an active gated condominium community where you own the home AND the land (NO MONTHLY LOT RENT). Timberlake Estates features a clubhouse, 2 pools (heated pool and hot spa), dock / fishing pier, playground and other amenities. Timberlake does not have age restrictions and it is also pet friendly. This home, with no rear neighbors, has been tastefully furnished throughout. It boasts a spacious eat in kitchen and it also has a separate dining area. The living room has sliding doors that lead you to the screened enclosed porch. The master bath has a large double size shower with seats in it, and there is a tub in the guest bathroom. It comes with all of the appliances including a newer washer and dryer (2013). Low monthly HOA payment that covers lawn maintenance, water, sewer, and garbage pick-up. Great location - close to Home Depot, Publix, Wiregrass Mall and I75 nearby.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Updated windows
• You own the land

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• FISHING LAKE WITH DOCK
• YOU OWN THE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in a mobile home park zoning (RMH/MOBILE HOME PARK / SU); Lot size approximately 0.1 acre
• Financial info: Monthly condo/association fee: $217; Total annual fees: $2,604; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association: RealManage; Monthly association fee: $217; Association amenities include clubhouse, gated community, playground, pool, shuffleboard court, storage; Association fee covers pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, and water; Buyer/association approval required; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Deed restrictions; golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a double wide manufactured home structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Patio/porch; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($237/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $145k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3145 Hickory Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+5%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	90
34135 Brown Byu	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-1%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	75
3141 Great Oak St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+12%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	73
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	988 (-10%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	71
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+11%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	66
3041 Short Leaf St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+7%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	56
34645 Lily Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	54
3921 Chris Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	8mo	$142,500	$135	53
3915 Kiah Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+6%)	5mo	$225,000	$195	48
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.64mi	2/2.0	960 (-12%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	43
3915 Julie Dr	0.73mi	2/1.5	964 (-12%)	6mo	$90,000	$93	39
3906 Sarah Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	936 (-14%)	8mo	$128,000	$137	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-26,506
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-37,925
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,501/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$217
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $61	+0% $20	+5% $-21	+10% $-62
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-39	+0% $20	+5% $79	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $57	base $20	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	17d	1	0.32mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	26d	1	0.66mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	26d	1	0.83mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	7d	1	0.86mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	15d	1	0.87mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	26d	1	0.87mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	19d	1	0.87mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	1d	13	0.90mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	5d	1	0.92mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	19d	1	0.94mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	26d	1	1.00mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	26d	1	1.01mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	26d	1	1.07mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	1.07mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	13d	1	1.07mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	17d	1	1.07mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	7d	1	1.17mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	26d	1	1.18mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	1d	70	1.35mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	5d	46	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $145,000 Active
17. 2014-03-11
    soldstatus $45,000
18. 2014-03-10
    soldstatus $45,000 Sold 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Fully furnished and nicely maintained doublewide manufactured mobile home in Timberlake Estates - an active gated condominium community where you own the home AND the land (NO MONTHLY LOT RENT). Timberlake Estates features a clubhouse, 2 pools (heated pool and hot spa), dock / fishing pier, playground and other amenities. Timberlake does not have age restrictions and it is also pet friendly. This home, with no rear neighbors, has been tastefully furnished throughout. It boasts a spacious eat in kitchen and it also has a separate dining area. The living room has sliding doors that lead you to the screened enclosed porch. The master bath has a large double size shower with seats in it, and there is a tub in the guest bathroom. It comes with all of the appliances including a newer washer and dryer (2013). Low monthly HOA payment that covers lawn maintenance, water, sewer, and garbage pick-up. Great location - close to Home Depot, Publix, Wiregrass Mall and I75 nearby.

19. 2014-01-25
    listed $52,500 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    Fully furnished and nicely maintained doublewide manufactured mobile home in Timberlake Estates - an active gated condominium community where you own the home AND the land (NO MONTHLY LOT RENT). Timberlake Estates features a clubhouse, 2 pools (heated pool and hot spa), dock / fishing pier, playground and other amenities. Timberlake does not have age restrictions and it is also pet friendly. This home, with no rear neighbors, has been tastefully furnished throughout. It boasts a spacious eat in kitchen and it also has a separate dining area. The living room has sliding doors that lead you to the screened enclosed porch. The master bath has a large double size shower with seats in it, and there is a tub in the guest bathroom. It comes with all of the appliances including a newer washer and dryer (2013). Low monthly HOA payment that covers lawn maintenance, water, sewer, and garbage pick-up. Great location - close to Home Depot, Publix, Wiregrass Mall and I75 nearby.

20. 2013-02-26
    soldstatus $30,000 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    1990 2 bedroom 2 bath nice screen front room, carport with utitly shed priced to sell must see.

21. 2012-08-08
    listed $39,900 95-char remark

    Show marketing remark (95 chars)

    1990 2 bedroom 2 bath nice screen front room, carport with utitly shed priced to sell must see.

22. 2012-08-07
    historical
23. 2012-07-24
    listed $39,900
24. 2000-04-10
    soldstatus $40,000
25. 1990-04-01
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,501 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,501 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,501
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$499
• After-tax cash flow: $736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+974.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-10 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-25 Listed $52,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-26 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-08 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-24 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,501 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.