Arlington Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32221

$199,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · Townhouse · 494 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 493 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Jacksonville, FL 32221
• Financial info: List price $220,490

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Arlington)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1481

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan-style new construction (Arlington plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $199,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $224,812.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-307/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,812
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
739 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	3mo	$219,990	$148	92
728 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-2%)	3mo	$219,990	$149	91
737 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	4mo	$219,990	$148	91
743 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	4mo	$219,990	$148	90
741 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	5mo	$219,990	$148	90
730 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	6mo	$219,990	$148	89
718 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-2%)	6mo	$219,990	$149	89
732 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,482 (-2%)	6mo	$219,990	$148	88
710 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-2%)	7mo	$219,990	$149	88
714 Sailor Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-2%)	7mo	$219,990	$149	88
726 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,557 (+2%)	2mo	$229,990	$148	87
720 Sailor Grove Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,557 (+2%)	3mo	$229,990	$148	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,727
• Equity at exit: $33,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,417
• Equity at exit: $19,438

Cash invested: $62,947 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32221

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,372/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $221,111

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $52	+0% $-26	+5% $-103	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-102	+0% $-26	+5% $51	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $32	base $-26	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,203
• Closing costs: $6,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
726 Sailor Grove Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1554	$1,850	$1.19	4d	1	0.02mi
8054 Paschal St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1192	$1,850	$1.55	25d	1	0.26mi
8054 Graff Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,699	$1.52	3d	1	0.52mi
7847 Mariner St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,599	$1.32	25d	1	0.57mi
7841 Mariner St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,625	$1.34	18d	1	0.57mi
8311 Santman Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,400	$1.10	25d	1	0.79mi
863 Westgate Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,800	$1.40	18d	1	0.82mi
1116 Palisades Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,550	$1.34	4d	1	0.85mi
909 Westgate Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1051	$1,595	$1.52	5d	1	0.86mi
7777 Normandy Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,999	$1.92	4d	19	1.20mi
8697 Elmo Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1500	$1,975	$1.32	25d	1	1.20mi
8331 Old Plank Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,595	$1.48	18d	1	1.20mi
1485 Fouraker Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,965	$2.07	3d	55	1.20mi
1484 Bloomingdale Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,899	$1.50	5d	1	1.25mi
8642 Hammond Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,900	$1.07	18d	1	1.28mi
8642 Hammond Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$1,900	$1.07	9d	1	1.28mi
1512 Rebecca Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,895	$1.12	16d	1	1.30mi
7010 Arques Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,595	$1.12	12d	1	1.36mi
7010 Arques Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,595	$1.12	15d	1	1.36mi
711 Cahoon Rd N Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	16d	1	1.38mi
909 La Marche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,600	$1.21	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 494 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 491 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 490 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $199,990 Active 489 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 488 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,990 Active 482 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 481 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,990 Active 476 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,990 Active 475 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,990 Active 474 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,990 Active 473 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,593
• − Property taxes: −$3,372
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,540
• Taxable loss: −$4,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,833
• Household income: $82,969
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.74%
• Current HPI: 263.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B