236 Sundance Trl · West Livingston, TX 77351

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a spacious 0.48-acre lot in Lakeland Hideaway. Features include an attached 2-car carport, large utility room, kitchen dining combo, covered front porch and a deck overlooking the rear of the property. Plenty of outdoor space with room to enjoy the peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached carport
• Utility room

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• UTILITY ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DECK OVERLOOKING REAR
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Built in 1960; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on first level (approx. 10 x 10); Total of 4 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-892/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,038 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $587,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Cotton Hill Road Rd	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,342 (+9%)	15mo	$640,000	$273	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-33,849
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-35,420
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,990/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $166,765

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-23	+0% $-74	+5% $-125	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-134	+0% $-74	+5% $-15	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-29	base $-74	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 301-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,990
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$954
• After-tax cash flow: $62/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $205,534 Public Records
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $242,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,990 · +114.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.