2302 Quail Valley East Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 8,851 sqft lot Est $284k · 34% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3/2/2A: Single story home w/ large Atrium. Features include a high ceiling, family room w/ fireplace, covered patio, surround sound, formal dining room, large kitchen w/ island, large 6' x 7' kitchen pantry & counters surfaced w/ granite. There is foundation work needed & rotted wood to be replaced.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Kitchen pantry
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE ATRIUM
• COVERED PATIO
• SURROUND SOUND
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• KITCHEN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Quail Valley East HOA; HOA provides clubhouse, common areas and recreation facilities; Annual association fee (approximately $800); Gated community; Community pool, curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Built in 1973; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private, fully fenced yard; Back yard fence; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Electric oven / electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Granite countertops; Breakfast nook (approx. 9 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (approx. 6 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Entrance foyer; Double vanity; Granite counters; Tub with shower; Wired for sound; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (approx. 6 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-10%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	79
2818 Eaglerock Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,146 (+6%)	2mo	$289,000	$135	72
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (-5%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	69
3131 Quail Valley East Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,997 (-2%)	2mo	$289,500	$145	65
2503 Fall Meadow Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,319 (+14%)	2mo	$279,990	$121	64
2914 Quail Valley East Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,146 (+6%)	2mo	$299,000	$139	62
1927 S Bend Cir	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,985 (-2%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	59
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (-0%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	58
3043 Bonney Briar Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,206 (+9%)	1mo	$309,900	$140	57
2503 Ashmont Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,139 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$103	57
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-14%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	49
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-14%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,497
• Equity at exit: $39,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,591
• Equity at exit: $36,715

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,810/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $256	+0% $202	+5% $149	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $111	+0% $202	+5% $294	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $251	base $202	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	0.15mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.53mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.64mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	19d	1	0.71mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	23d	1	0.96mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.98mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.03mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	14d	1	1.13mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.16mi
1935 Poco Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2868	$2,326	$0.81	23d	1	1.37mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	25d	1	1.38mi
3512 Talia Wood Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$2,900	$0.98	11d	1	1.40mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.44mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	22d	1	1.45mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.45mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	21d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 304-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $189,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,810 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,810 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$5,810
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$90
• After-tax cash flow: $2,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $189,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,810 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.