17145 Bay St · Jupiter, FL 33477

$865,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · Townhouse public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1979 4,940 sqft lot $930/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing opportunity to own a 3 bedroom, 3 bath townhouse with an oversized 2 car garage on the Jonathan's Landing village golf course. Tropically landscaped front yard, walkway and back yard. Back patio where you can soak in the spa in your private backyard oasis covered from the rain. Mature landscaping provides sun protection with a western exposure. AC and water heater both replaced in 2024. AC has an automatic pump to clear the drain line installed in the attic. Roof replaced in 2018. FPL surge protector installed. Across from the community pool with ample guest parking. 24 hour gated access in one of Jupiter's finest non-mandatory membership golf communities. Several levels of membersh

Key facts

• Western exposure
• Automatic pump
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• TROPICALLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• WESTERN EXPOSURE
• AUTOMATIC PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee; Association amenities include a pool; HOA pays maintenance of grounds and common areas; Pets allowed (with limits); Community contains 51 units

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community with guard; Security system (owned); Security patrol; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Sewer available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Multi/split levels; Entry-level living area present; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Frame and CBS construction; Shingle/composition roof; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Above-ground heated spa; On golf course; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $865k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $658k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $693k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $658k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.7% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beacon Cove Intermediate School (math 84% / reading 86%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 641 students, 19% FRL); Jupiter Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,384 students, 38% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($839k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $865k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $657,815 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $47,041
• Equity at exit: $385,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $368,629
• Equity at exit: $591,338

Cash invested: $242,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33477

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,081 /mo · $12,975/yr
• Insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$930
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,456
• Net cashflow: $-1,432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,744

Max offer price $657,815

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-834	-5% $-1,133	+0% $-1,432	+5% $-1,731	+10% $-2,030
Rent	-10% $-1,979	-5% $-1,706	+0% $-1,432	+5% $-1,158	+10% $-884
Rate	-1.0pp $-996	-0.5pp $-1,212	base $-1,432	+0.5pp $-1,656	+1.0pp $-1,884

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $216,250
• Closing costs: $25,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17026 Bay St Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2149	$15,000	$6.98	26d	1	0.10mi
17235 Bay St Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	2362	$12,000	$5.08	26d	1	0.13mi
17110 Waterbend Dr #219 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1818	$6,500	$3.58	26d	1	0.28mi
17137 Waterbend Dr #204 Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1818	$4,000	$2.20	21d	1	0.28mi
400 S US Highway 1 #303 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2694	$7,800	$2.90	26d	1	0.42mi
400 S US Highway 1 #303 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2694	$9,000	$3.34	20d	1	0.42mi
400 S US Highway 1 #303 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2694	$9,000	$3.34	19d	1	0.42mi
500 S US Highway 1 #402 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2497	$10,000	$4.00	6d	1	0.43mi
16050 W Bay Dr #151 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$7,500	$4.35	26d	1	0.55mi
3518 Lantern Bay Dr Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.5	2397	$4,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.61mi
300 North Highway A1A Unit H101 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1936	$7,500	$3.87	9d	1	0.76mi
16461 Riverwind Dr Jupiter, FL	2.0	3.0	2457	$15,000	$6.11	26d	1	0.77mi
1605 S US Highway 1 Unit M1-506 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.77mi
214 Seabreeze Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1620	$4,650	$2.87	26d	1	0.78mi
213 Seabreeze Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,900	$1.79	12d	1	0.78mi
860 Bella Vista Ct S #60 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,500	$1.52	22d	1	0.80mi
270 Bella Vista Ct N #70 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1640	$7,500	$4.57	26d	1	0.80mi
360 Bella Vista Ct N #60 Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1640	$10,000	$6.10	26d	1	0.80mi
470 Bella Vista Ct N Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,900	$1.77	22d	1	0.80mi
120 Water Pointe Pl Unit 3 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	2192	$6,950	$3.17	26d	1	0.85mi
104 Sunfish Ln Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2642	$8,500	$3.22	26d	1	0.86mi
606 Paulina Rd Jupiter, FL	4.0	2.0	1724	$4,750	$2.76	7d	1	0.86mi
104 W Spearfish Ln Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	2097	$10,000	$4.77	9d	1	0.87mi
703 Xanadu Pl Jupiter, FL	4.0	3.0	2426	$16,500	$6.80	26d	1	0.89mi
1605 S US Highway 1 Unit 401M3 Jupiter, FL	2.0	3.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	26d	1	1.00mi
1469 Via Privada Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$5,875	$3.15	26d	1	1.02mi
1469 Via Privada Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$5,800	$3.11	23d	1	1.02mi
500 Ocean Trail Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1523	$6,150	$4.04	26d	1	1.03mi
2502 Fairway Dr N Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1611	$3,500	$2.17	26d	1	1.07mi
1000 U.S. 1 Unit EL403 Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1828	$5,000	$2.74	26d	1	1.10mi
107 Mako Ln Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.0	1926	$7,000	$3.63	5d	1	1.10mi
123 E Thatch Palm Cir Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1597	$4,000	$2.50	26d	1	1.12mi
141 E Thatch Palm Cir Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	1751	$3,100	$1.77	19d	1	1.14mi
114 Waters Edge Dr Jupiter, FL	3.0	3.5	3171	$22,000	$6.94	1d	1	1.20mi
112 E Coral Fish Ln Jupiter, FL	4.0	3.5	2000	$7,500	$3.75	26d	1	1.20mi
1420 Ocean Way Unit 32C Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1708	$2,800	$1.64	26d	1	1.22mi
1420 Ocean Way Unit 28C Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1708	$3,500	$2.05	26d	1	1.22mi
1420 Ocean Way Unit 19D Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1708	$4,000	$2.34	22d	1	1.22mi
1420 Ocean Way Unit 14D Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.5	1708	$2,500	$1.46	26d	1	1.22mi
2704 Captains Way Jupiter, FL	2.0	2.0	1866	$11,000	$5.89	26d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $930 · $11,160/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $865,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $865,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $865,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $865,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $865,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $865,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $865,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $865,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $865,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $865,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $865,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $865,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $865,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $865,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $865,000
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $895,000 Active
17. 2026-04-15
    historical
18. 2026-04-07
    price $895,000
19. 2026-03-11
    price $977,000
20. 2026-02-15
    price $997,000
21. 2026-02-13
    price $999,000
22. 2025-12-03
    price $1,100,000
23. 2025-09-19
    listed $1,200,000 Active
24. 2025-09-12
    historical
25. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $235,000
26. 1981-01-01
    soldstatus $180,700
27. 1981-01-01
    soldstatus $180,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,453
• − Property taxes: −$12,975
• − Insurance: −$4,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,654
• − Management: −$6,654
• − HOA: −$11,160
• − Depreciation: −$25,164
• Taxable loss: −$32,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #7386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 68,420
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,908
• Household income: $104,992
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 445.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 356.212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.27%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+378.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $865,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $895,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $895,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $977,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $997,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $999,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $1,100,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $1,200,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-12 Coming Soon — Beaches MLS
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $180,700 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $180,700 Public Records

Property tax history

-17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.