17845 Luckey Rd #2 · Lytle, TX 78052

$119,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2018 Poor condition 1.34 ac lot $88/sqft · 48% below area Est $232k · 48% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

Key facts

• Country living
• Mobile home
• Spacious lot

Tags

• MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• COUNTRY LIVING
• ACCESS TO NEARBY AMENITIES
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.9% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($828 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $112,612 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.69%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,865
• List price: $119,800
• Delta: -48.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14681 Main St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+5%)	3mo	$299,900	$209	74
15000 Lytle Somerset Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	2mo	$231,999	$161	69
19231 Benton	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (-5%)	2mo	$210,000	$161	62
16124 Farmer	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-4%)	2mo	$291,900	$222	61
16112 Farmer	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-4%)	4mo	$291,900	$222	59
15129 Norvell	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-9%)	3mo	$330,000	$264	58
16166 Farmer	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-4%)	2mo	$291,900	$222	57
16012 Stratford Cv	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	3mo	$252,900	$215	45
16140 Farmer	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	3mo	$249,900	$213	43
16104 Farmer	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	2mo	$255,900	$218	43
16056 Imes Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	4mo	$255,900	$218	40
16005 Cabana Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	5mo	$283,900	$242	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $64,325
• Equity at exit: $77,206

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $166,940
• Equity at exit: $141,674

Cash invested: $33,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $261,000 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$628
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,797/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $119,800

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $521	-5% $480	+0% $439	+5% $397	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $375	+0% $439	+5% $502	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $469	base $439	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,950
• Closing costs: $3,594
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14838 Lytle Somerset Rd Lytle, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	93d	1	0.44mi
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,137	$1.37	9d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,800 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,800 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   price $119,800 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

4. 2026-05-08
   price $119,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

5. 2026-05-02
   price $129,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

6. 2026-04-24
   price $134,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $144,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

8. 2026-04-10
   price $149,000 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

9. 2026-04-02
   price $169,900 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

10. 2026-03-27
    price $189,900 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

11. 2026-03-17
    listed $199,900 New 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Strong investment potential - bring your vision and unlock the value Great opportunity with significant upside potential! This 2018 mobile home offers 1,368 sqft of living space and sits on approximately 1.34 acres, providing plenty of room to improve, expand, or customize to your needs. With some work and updates, this property could offer excellent value for investors, flippers, or homeowners looking to build equity. The spacious lot provides room for outdoor living, additional improvements, or simply enjoying the privacy of country living. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful rural setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,711
• − Property taxes: −$1,797
• − Insurance: −$599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$3,485
• Taxable income: $3,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $4,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $68,400–$123,120 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to modern standards, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe damage and weathering
• Major Roof — Missing shingles
• Major Flooring — Worn and damaged
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and in need of replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in need of replacement
• Major Paint — Chipped and peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Roof repair/replacement — Fixes major structural issue and improves value ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Enhances living space and value ↑
• Both Kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both Paint touch-ups — Enhances the appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lytle El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Lytle J H F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Lytle H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• County: Atascosa · 57,233 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221
• Household income: $69,018
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $119,800 LERA
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $119,900 LERA
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $129,900 LERA
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $134,900 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $144,900 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $149,000 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $169,900 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $189,900 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Listed $199,900 LERA