13405 Wheat Rd · Venus, TX 76084

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1998 1.03 ac lot Est $305k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Remodeled Home on 1 Acre in Venus, TX! Welcome to this beautifully updated home situated on a spacious 1-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of country living and modern convenience. Enjoy easy access to major highways including US-67 and I-35W. You'll also be just minutes from local shopping, dining, schools, and recreational opportunities. This move-in-ready home has been completely remodeled and features new flooring, brand-new carpeting, fresh interior and exterior paint, granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms, and stainless-steel appliances. The open and inviting layout provides comfortable living spaces filled with natural light. Don't miss this opportunit

Key facts

• Natural light
• Open layout
• 1 acre

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• 1 ACRE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property treated as residential; Property subtype: Mobile Home; Parcel number: 126445100361
• Financial info: Listing is For Sale; Listing agreement: Exclusive Right To Sell
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No covered or carport spaces; Other parking features
• Utilities: Well water; Co-op electric
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Attached; One level; Built in 1998
• Construction: Year built 1998
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.03-acre lot; Will not subdivide; Subdivision: B Fielderdale Farms; Lot in Johnson County

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Granite counters; One living area; One dining area; Two total bathrooms; Rooms listed as 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,408 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,312
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4105 Adriels Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-9%)	19mo	$279,000	$188	50
11224 Pikes Peak Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,403 (-14%)	23mo	$219,000	$156	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $90,827
• Equity at exit: $171,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $258,322
• Equity at exit: $330,059

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,541/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $124	+0% $57	+5% $-11	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-29	+0% $57	+5% $142	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $118	base $57	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,541 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$849/yr (+$71/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,541
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $1,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2000-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,541 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.