3800 Saddlebrook Pl · Columbia, MO 65202

$194,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · Condo · 12 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your 3 bed/2 bath condo (Unit 305) with 1-car garage in Spencer's Crest. The property features has just been recently remodeled with Luxury Vinyl Plank throughout, all new appliances, fresh paint and a recently serviced HVAC unit. This unit offers a large primary suite with a walk-in closet. Other highlights include a private covered patio and access to a community pool, pickleball court, and playground. The property has has just been updated and comes equipped with a washer and dryer. This property is conveniently located right off the main entrance, just a minute from 763 Hwy in Spencer's Crest subdivision.

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 48 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $160,982 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-44,665
• Equity at exit: $29,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-40,222
• Equity at exit: $16,817

Cash invested: $54,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$243 /mo · $2,918/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA est. from 14 same-building comps: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $153,059

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-219	+0% $-286	+5% $-354	+10% $-421
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-350	+0% $-286	+5% $-223	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-237	base $-286	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,625
• Closing costs: $5,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4305 Derby Ridge Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	44d	1	0.54mi
1602 Typhoon Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	21d	1	0.67mi
1521 Typhoon Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	44d	1	0.68mi
1610 Typhoon Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,750	$1.23	44d	1	0.70mi
3922 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.70mi
4006 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.71mi
3910 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.72mi
4014 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.73mi
4016 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.73mi
3927 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.74mi
4001 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.74mi
4013 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.76mi
1602 High Quest Cir Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	44d	1	0.77mi
214 Arctic Wolf Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.78mi
1615 Kittyhawk Dr Unit 1615-3 Columbia, MO	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	44d	1	0.85mi
1601-1603 Bold Ruler Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	14d	1	0.89mi
20 Blue Ridge Rd Unit 202 Columbia, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	0.90mi
1605 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	44d	1	0.90mi
1627 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	44d	1	0.93mi
1635 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	44d	1	0.94mi
1516 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	0.97mi
1613 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,275	$1.02	44d	1	0.99mi
1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.25mi
1401-1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	21d	1	1.25mi
1424 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	1.26mi
5211 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.27mi
1432 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	1.28mi
1417 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.28mi
1419 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.28mi
5301 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1374	$1,495	$1.09	44d	1	1.28mi
1500 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	21d	1	1.29mi
5305 Currituck Ln Unit 5305 Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	14d	1	1.30mi
5305 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.30mi
5307 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.30mi
5309-5311 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.31mi
1507 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.33mi
1524 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	1.34mi
1405 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	21d	1	1.35mi
1413 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	14d	1	1.36mi
1427 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	14d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,500 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,500 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,500 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,500 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,500 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,500 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,500 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,500 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 132-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $194,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,895
• − Property taxes: −$2,918
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$5,658
• Taxable loss: −$6,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,628
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MO
• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+182.3% since first listed

98 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $194,500 FSBO.com
• 2025-08-14 Sold (MLS) — WCAR
• 2025-04-22 Pending — WCAR
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $169,900 WCAR
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $177,900 WCAR
• 2025-03-19 Listed $184,900 WCAR
• 2018-10-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2018-08-24 Listed $99,700 CBORMLS
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2018-04-23 Listed $94,500 CBORMLS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-07-20 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-07-06 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-06-24 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS
• 2006-06-23 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-06-23 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-06-16 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-06-13 Listed $99,900 CBORMLS
• 2006-06-07 Listed $101,900 CBORMLS
• 2006-06-05 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-05-01 Listed $90,000 CBORMLS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-04-25 Listed $98,500 CBORMLS
• 2006-04-25 Listed $89,500 CBORMLS
• 2006-03-31 Listed $98,500 CBORMLS
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-02-11 Listed $88,000 CBORMLS
• 2006-01-29 Listed $99,500 CBORMLS
• 2005-11-10 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-09-14 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-08-20 Listed $94,900 CBORMLS
• 2005-07-29 Listed $99,000 CBORMLS
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-07-27 Listed $97,500 CBORMLS
• 2005-06-27 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-06-14 Listed $94,500 CBORMLS
• 2005-06-01 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-05-26 Listed $94,900 CBORMLS
• 2005-05-16 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-04-26 Listed $85,000 CBORMLS
• 2005-03-26 Listed $85,000 CBORMLS
• 2005-03-10 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-02-21 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS
• 2005-02-18 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-02-15 Listed $89,000 CBORMLS
• 2005-01-21 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS
• 2005-01-11 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-11-10 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS
• 2004-10-21 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-08-27 Listed $94,900 CBORMLS
• 2004-08-05 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-07-02 Listed $76,500 CBORMLS
• 2004-05-14 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-04-26 Listed $90,900 CBORMLS
• 2004-04-08 Listed $79,900 CBORMLS
• 2002-06-06 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2002-05-01 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2002-04-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2002-04-01 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2002-02-08 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-11-15 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-11-08 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-10-17 Listed $68,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-10-05 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-10-01 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-09-26 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-09-04 Listed $72,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-09-04 Listed $73,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-09-04 Listed $73,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-09-04 Listed $72,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-08-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-08-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-08-15 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-08-13 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-28 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-27 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-02 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-07-02 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $69,500 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $69,500 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $73,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $72,400 CBORMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $68,900 CBORMLS