16 Neighborhood Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$349,990

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1947 10,019 sqft lot $456/sqft · at area comps Est $517k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded Cape, 4 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Large Eik, Full Basement, Located On Level Lot, Close To Transportation, Shopping, Town Parks And Ocean Beaches. Won't Last.

Key facts

• Basement for storage
• Quiet location
• Fenced corner lot

Tags

• FENCED CORNER LOT
• BASEMENT FOR STORAGE
• CLOSE TO BEACH
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• QUIET LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Park; Playground

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces; No carport
• Utilities: PSEG electric service; Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Sewer available; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Actual property condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Awnings; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms include bedroom layout)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Storage
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $350k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,000 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,818
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -32.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
255 Mckinley Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	798 (+4%)	11mo	$387,500	$486	55
5 Vine Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	840 (+9%)	12mo	$383,000	$456	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $183,226
• Equity at exit: $315,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $545,483
• Equity at exit: $679,954

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,116/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,048

Max offer price $329,397

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $-18	+0% $-117	+5% $-216	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-231	+0% $-117	+5% $-2	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-28	base $-117	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	0d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,990 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,990 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   listed $349,990 Active 679-char remark
10. 2025-11-14
    status Pending
11. 2025-11-14
    historical
12. 2025-11-01
    price $355,000
13. 2025-09-20
    listed $359,000 Active
14. 2017-10-30
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Expanded Cape, 4 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Large Eik, Full Basement, Located On Level Lot, Close To Transportation, Shopping, Town Parks And Ocean Beaches. Won't Last.

15. 2017-09-05
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Expanded Cape, 4 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Large Eik, Full Basement, Located On Level Lot, Close To Transportation, Shopping, Town Parks And Ocean Beaches. Won't Last.

16. 2017-07-21
    listed $94,500 New

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Expanded Cape, 4 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Large Eik, Full Basement, Located On Level Lot, Close To Transportation, Shopping, Town Parks And Ocean Beaches. Won't Last.

17. 2013-11-11
    historical
18. 2013-10-12
    historical
19. 2012-11-11
    listed $99,000
20. 2012-10-12
    listed $150,000
21. 2007-05-21
    soldstatus $200,000
22. 2004-05-06
    soldstatus $140,000
23. 1995-02-22
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,116 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,516 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,116
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+455.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $349,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $355,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Listed $359,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-21 Listed $94,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-11 Listed $99,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-12 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,116 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.