83 Elm Rd E · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$460,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1934 6,098 sqft lot $330/sqft · 6% below area Est $487k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity on this vintage Dutch Colonial farm house steps away from the Marina where you can dock your boat, enjoy water activities and gateway to the Hampton's and ocean. Bring your designer and build on these Mahogany doors, glass door knobs, large oversized windows, hardwood oak plank floors, front porch entry, second floor private deck, 150 amp electric service, updated alarm system, nest thermostats, paver front parking area. Corner oversized property next to a verified non build-able lot next door makes this waterfront community location private and one of its kind. Small office/ guestroom on main can make room for Mom sleeper or home office. This is an opportunity for a vacation waterfront community residence with great space, Location, low taxes and amazing potential.

Key facts

• Front porch entry
• Glass door knobs
• Mahogany doors

Tags

• VINTAGE DUTCH COLONIAL
• MAHOGANY DOORS
• GLASS DOOR KNOBS
• LARGE OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD OAK PLANK FLOORS
• FRONT PORCH ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $359k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,767 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,323
• List price: $460,000
• Delta: -5.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Jefferson Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+5%)	9mo	$260,000	$178	73
155 Dahlia Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-2%)	4mo	$399,000	$293	70
102 Dahlia Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	10mo	$545,000	$352	63
79A Alder Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+2%)	11mo	$545,000	$385	61
189 Beaver Dr	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,470 (+6%)	3mo	$560,000	$381	61
62 Orchid Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,222 (-12%)	10mo	$285,000	$233	60
145 Magnolia Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,386 (-0%)	11mo	$450,000	$325	56
79 Dogwood Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-14%)	12mo	$413,000	$344	56
195 Forest Rd W	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+1%)	14mo	$500,000	$357	50
161 Washington Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-14%)	5mo	$440,000	$367	47
25 W Riviera Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+8%)	12mo	$430,000	$287	44
181 Cypress Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	2mo	$276,000	$230	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $207,501
• Equity at exit: $414,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $645,782
• Equity at exit: $893,679

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,551/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,570

Max offer price $339,767

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-550	+0% $-681	+5% $-811	+10% $-941
Rent	-10% $-974	-5% $-827	+0% $-681	+5% $-534	+10% $-388
Rate	-1.0pp $-449	-0.5pp $-564	base $-681	+0.5pp $-800	+1.0pp $-921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	0d	1	0.45mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	45d	1	0.64mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	1.23mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $460,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $460,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $460,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $460,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $460,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $460,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $460,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $460,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $460,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $460,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $460,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $460,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $460,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $460,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $460,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2025-11-24
    listed $460,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great investment opportunity on this vintage Dutch Colonial farm house steps away from the Marina where you can dock your boat, enjoy water activities and gateway to the Hampton's and ocean. Bring your designer and build on these Mahogany doors, glass door knobs, large oversized windows, hardwood oak plank floors, front porch entry, second floor private deck, 150 amp electric service, updated alarm system, nest thermostats, paver front parking area. Corner oversized property next to a verified non build-able lot next door makes this waterfront community location private and one of its kind. Small office/ guestroom on main can make room for Mom sleeper or home office. This is an opportunity for a vacation waterfront community residence with great space, Location, low taxes and amazing potential.

17. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $359,000
18. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $359,000 Closed 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

19. 2022-07-25
    status Pending 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

20. 2022-05-22
    status Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

21. 2022-05-20
    historical 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

22. 2022-05-20
    status Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

23. 2022-05-19
    historical 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

24. 2022-05-05
    listed $369,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Tons of Memories in this 1934 Custom Built Home. Now its time to Pass that on to New Homeowners. This Charming Home Still has The Original Doors with Glass Knobs and Skeleton Keys on Every Door. Plus the Original Stairs & Moldings Throughout. Large Property, Strolling Through The Grounds You Will Feel As Though You're Walking Through a Park! There's an Extra 40x100 Lot Included for a Total of 100x100. Low Taxes !!! Minutes From Marina & Bay Beaches., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:n

25. 1997-11-12
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,551 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,162 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$6,551
• − Insurance: −$7,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,560
• − Management: −$3,560
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$16,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+513.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Listed $460,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $359,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $359,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-05 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.