157 Santa Teresa · San Leandro, CA 94579

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Est $201k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

** A PERFECT `10` BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED ** QUALITY UPGRADES THROUGHOUT ! FENCED YARD BRAND NEW WHEELCHAIR LIFT AND RAMP WILL BE

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Community pool
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.0% in San Leandro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#289 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• San Lorenzo Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,044 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $180k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.68%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
264 Santa Susana	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-0%)	4mo	$210,000	$156	92
112 Santa Teresa	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	7mo	$159,900	$117	83
154 Santa Teresa	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$175,900	$122	82
541 Santa Ynez	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	12mo	$204,500	$149	81
440 Santa Monica	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+1%)	7mo	$211,000	$154	81
105 Santa Teresa	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	8mo	$182,000	$133	80
375 Santa Paula	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$199,000	$138	79
286 Santa Susana #286	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$239,000	$166	79
509 Santa Ynez	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+6%)	8mo	$300,000	$210	67
404 Santa Monica	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$199,500	$139	66
191 Santa Teresa	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	3mo	$128,000	$111	66
227 Santa Susana	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	12mo	$323,400	$216	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $44,930
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $134,664
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94579

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $1,163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
941 Lewelling Blvd San Leandro, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$2,525	$2.73	43d	1	0.86mi
15184 Swenson St San Leandro, CA	3.0	1.5	1700	$3,700	$2.18	1d	1	0.94mi
724 Lewelling Blvd San Leandro, CA	1.0	1.0	950	$2,338	$2.46	24d	1	1.00mi
Corvallis St San Leandro, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,600	$3.27	1d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-29
   listed $180,000 Active
3. 1999-06-27
   soldstatus $58,000 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   ** A PERFECT `10` BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED ** QUALITY UPGRADES THROUGHOUT ! FENCED YARD BRAND NEW WHEELCHAIR LIFT AND RAMP WILL BE

4. 1999-05-27
   historical 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   ** A PERFECT `10` BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED ** QUALITY UPGRADES THROUGHOUT ! FENCED YARD BRAND NEW WHEELCHAIR LIFT AND RAMP WILL BE

5. 1999-04-01
   listed $58,000 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   ** A PERFECT `10` BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED ** QUALITY UPGRADES THROUGHOUT ! FENCED YARD BRAND NEW WHEELCHAIR LIFT AND RAMP WILL BE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,924
• − Management: −$2,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $11,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,829
• After-tax cash flow: $11,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Lorenzo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,114
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #12087
• State rank: #1044 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Leandro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #9768

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leandro, CA
• City population: 88,086
• Population (ZIP): 19,955

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 54% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% American 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Chinese 34% Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.47%
• Current HPI: 272.3821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+210.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-29 Listed $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-06-27 Sold (MLS) $58,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-05-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-04-01 Listed $58,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR