632 County Road 183 · Carthage, TX 75633

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 315 Days on market

Built 2017 $108/sqft · 38% below area Est $273k · 38% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL FISHERMAN!!! LAKE MURVAUL NORTH, 2017 MODEL HOME LOCATED ON AN INTERIOR LOT WITH FRONT AND BACK WATERVIEWS. .. INCLUDES A BOAT HOUSE ON JONES BRANCH WITH DEEP WATER AND AWESOME CRAPPIE FISHING. 20' x 25' INSULATED WORKSHOP WITH A/C & CONCRETE FLOOR.

Key facts

• Interior lot
• Boat house
• Deep water

Tags

• INTERIOR LOT
• FRONT AND BACK WATERVIEWS
• BOAT HOUSE
• DEEP WATER
• WORKSHOP WITH CONCRETE FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carthage Pri (484 students, 67% FRL); Baker-Koonce Int (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 568 students, 58% FRL); Carthage H S (math 59% / reading 57%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,859 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,424
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -37.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-36,842
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-44,132
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75633

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $144,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-98	+0% $-146	+5% $-194	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-194	+0% $-146	+5% $-98	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-103	base $-146	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 309 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 308 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 307 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 306 DOM
9. 2025-08-08
   price $169,900 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   CALLING ALL FISHERMAN!!! LAKE MURVAUL NORTH, 2017 MODEL HOME LOCATED ON AN INTERIOR LOT WITH FRONT AND BACK WATERVIEWS. .. INCLUDES A BOAT HOUSE ON JONES BRANCH WITH DEEP WATER AND AWESOME CRAPPIE FISHING. 20' x 25' INSULATED WORKSHOP WITH A/C & CONCRETE FLOOR.

10. 2025-07-29
    listed $175,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    CALLING ALL FISHERMAN!!! LAKE MURVAUL NORTH, 2017 MODEL HOME LOCATED ON AN INTERIOR LOT WITH FRONT AND BACK WATERVIEWS. .. INCLUDES A BOAT HOUSE ON JONES BRANCH WITH DEEP WATER AND AWESOME CRAPPIE FISHING. 20' x 25' INSULATED WORKSHOP WITH A/C & CONCRETE FLOOR.

11. 2024-10-21
    price $190,000
12. 2024-08-27
    price $215,000
13. 2024-07-31
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 1995-07-10
    soldstatus
15. 1992-03-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,504/yr (+$125/mo · 93.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,999

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.73%
• Current HPI: 162.0275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $169,900 LAAR
• 2025-07-29 Listed $175,000 LAAR
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $190,000 LAAR
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $215,000 LAAR
• 2024-07-31 Listed $225,000 LAAR
• 1995-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,605 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.