950 Krejci Blvd · Basye, VA 22842

$124,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1981 3.37 ac lot $208/sqft · 56% below area $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge upside potential in this charming A Frame cabin! Home sits on a beautiful ridge and overlooks a small creek. Property is partially wooded and has a small tree house as well. Home needs finishing touches and offers unlimited potential! Short term rental compliant area. Must see!

Key facts

• Small tree house
• A frame cabin
• Partially wooded

Tags

• A FRAME CABIN
• SMALL CREEK
• PARTIALLY WOODED
• SMALL TREE HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.2% in Basye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#319 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $125k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.33%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,008
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -56.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $76,035
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $217,520
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22842

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $162	+0% $126	+5% $91	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $81	+0% $126	+5% $172	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $158	base $126	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $124,900 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Huge upside potential in this charming A Frame cabin! Home sits on a beautiful ridge and overlooks a small creek. Property is partially wooded and has a small tree house as well. Home needs finishing touches and offers unlimited potential! Short term rental compliant area. Must see!

16. 2026-03-19
    listed $149,900 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Huge upside potential in this charming A Frame cabin! Home sits on a beautiful ridge and overlooks a small creek. Property is partially wooded and has a small tree house as well. Home needs finishing touches and offers unlimited potential! Short term rental compliant area. Must see!

17. 2025-04-21
    soldstatus $78,000
18. 2020-01-27
    soldstatus $37,412
19. 2010-02-11
    historical
20. 2010-02-11
    historical Expired
21. 2009-08-13
    listed Active
22. 2009-08-13
    listed $78,900
23. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $1,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Basye

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #11652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,763

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.64%
• Current HPI: 353.3603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+92.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $37,412 Public Records
• 2010-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-08-13 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-08-13 Listed $78,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $693 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.