The Fallow Plan · Lubbock, TX 79416

$243,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Terra Vista!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 131 days

🏗️ New construction. The $243,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,412.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,455 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,412
• List price: $243,990
• Delta: -27.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-97,224
• Equity at exit: $50,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-144,367
• Equity at exit: $29,000

Cash invested: $93,915 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,031/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $241,723

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,853
• Closing costs: $10,062
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7324 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	21d	1	0.10mi
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	21d	1	0.38mi
7452 8th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,075	$1.20	13d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,990 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,990 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,990 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,990 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $243,990 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,990 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,990 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $243,990 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $243,990 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,990 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,990 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,990 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,990 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $243,990 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-02-25
    price $243,990 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Terra Vista!

17. 2026-02-07
    listed $253,990 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a centrally located full bathroom and upstairs laundry add everyday convenience. With its thoughtful layout and ample living space, the Fallow floorplan is designed to adapt to your lifestyle. Contact us to find your home in Terra Vista!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,788
• − Property taxes: −$5,031
• − Insurance: −$1,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$9,757
• Taxable loss: −$13,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Fallow Plan is a well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score, ideal for a move-in-ready investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Listed $253,990 Zillow