2403 Holmes Rd · Marshall, TX 75672

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 834 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1940 0.50 ac lot $60/sqft · 38% below area Est $81k · 38% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own your own Home or a great Investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home on a half acre. Located just off US 59 North of town. Close to schools, town, and shopping. this property is Sold As Is.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Close to schools
• One half acre

Tags

• ONE HALF ACRE
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Asphalt road access; No fencing; No pool; No other structures

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning unit(s); No central heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 4.6% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#451 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.07%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,071
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -38.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $24,611
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $63,584
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75672

• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $440

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $527	+0% $513	+5% $499	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $470	+0% $513	+5% $556	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $526	base $513	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $49,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Own your own Home or a great Investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home on a half acre. Located just off US 59 North of town. Close to schools, town, and shopping. this property is Sold As Is.

6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $54,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $54,900 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Own your own Home or a great Investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home on a half acre. Located just off US 59 North of town. Close to schools, town, and shopping. this property is Sold As Is.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $54,900 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Own your own Home or a great Investment property. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home on a half acre. Located just off US 59 North of town. Close to schools, town, and shopping. this property is Sold As Is.

19. 2025-12-29
    price $58,500
20. 2025-11-17
    price $59,000
21. 2025-10-24
    listed $59,500 Active
22. 1994-03-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $4,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #9156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshall, TX
• City population: 18,670
• Population (ZIP): 16,636

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.59%
• Current HPI: 140.8166
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $49,900 LAAR
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $49,900 TBOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $54,900 TBOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $54,900 LAAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $58,500 LAAR
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $59,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-24 Listed $59,500 LAAR
• 1994-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.