11500 Fm 32 · Canyon Lake, TX 78623

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot $223/sqft · 25% below area Est $372k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Cottage on just over 1 acre in Rancho Del Lago area of Fischer, TX. This gated property sits off the road with a small barn and pen in front and house in the back. This property is fenced on 4 sides, and has an open floor plan. It needs updating on the inside but, tons of potential. Come enjoy quiet country living at a great price!

Key facts

• Gated property
• Open floor plan
• Quiet country living

Tags

• GATED PROPERTY
• SMALL BARN
• FENCED ON 4 SIDES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($436/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,977
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -25.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
677 Possum Tree	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,136 (-9%)	8mo	$299,000	$263	49
781 Possum Tree	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	23mo	$299,000	$267	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,854
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,160
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78623

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,312/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,454

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $115	+0% $36	+5% $-43	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-62	+0% $36	+5% $135	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $107	base $36	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 Yaupon Dr Fischer, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,500	$1.71	4d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $279,000 New 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Cute Cottage on just over 1 acre in Rancho Del Lago area of Fischer, TX. This gated property sits off the road with a small barn and pen in front and house in the back. This property is fenced on 4 sides, and has an open floor plan. It needs updating on the inside but, tons of potential. Come enjoy quiet country living at a great price!

16. 2006-09-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,312 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$794/yr (+$66/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,312
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,159
• Population (ZIP): 1,575

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.90%
• Current HPI: 234.418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $279,000 LERA
• 2006-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,312 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.