16137 W Butterfield · Paradise Hill, OK 74451

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2002 3,134 sqft lot Est $111k · 15% under $32/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tenkiller Harbor on Lake Tenkiller! This quaint little community is an immaculate mobile home just waiting for its new owner! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home is the perfect weekend getaway or full-time residence for any lake lover! There is a boat dock inside the community, a pool for homeowners use, a convenience center and more! This home is situated on two lots with front and back decks. This home has been well maintained, and seller is willing to convey the furniture with the sale of the property! Lets go shopping!

Key facts

• Two lots
• Boat dock
• Front and back decks

Tags

• BOAT DOCK
• POOL FOR HOMEOWNERS USE
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• TWO LOTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee: monthly; Community amenities include park, pool, guard

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; 1 story; Faces north; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Manufactured construction; Metal roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch/deck; Deck; Patio; Porch; Shed(s); Dirt driveway; Mature trees; Water access to Tenkiller Lake; Boat ramp/lift access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Laminate countertops; Aluminum window frames; Electric range connection
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#675 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Tahlequah (town): math 27% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #109 of 270 in OK (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,104
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15009 W Cedar Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	900 (+0%)	11mo	$141,400	$157	85
15239 W Stagecoach Rd Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	784 (-12%)	7mo	$97,000	$124	66
15671 W Black Oak Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	11mo	$60,000	$67	65
15723 W Rifle Barrel Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+13%)	3mo	$109,900	$108	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $31,464
• Equity at exit: $57,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $88,302
• Equity at exit: $102,587

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74451

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-01-29
    listed $94,900 Active
18. 2026-01-23
    historical
19. 2025-12-14
    price $94,900
20. 2025-07-24
    historical
21. 2025-07-23
    listed $111,000 Active
22. 2025-05-30
    price $111,000
23. 2025-04-02
    listed $117,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $854 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 276.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$831
• − Management: −$831
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahlequah
• NCES district ID: 4029380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,990
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8393
• State rank: #109 of 270 in OK

Livability — Paradise Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #675
• US rank: #25705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,816

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,747 people
• By 2030: 53,481 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 56,503 · +9.2%
• By 2050: 59,370 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 67,178 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 70,900 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Native American 27% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 32.7% · R 65.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 256.0707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $94,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $94,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-23 Listed $111,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $111,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-04-02 Listed $117,500 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+32.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $227 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.