585 River Oaks Dr · Riverside, TX 75862

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily · 457 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 10,362 sqft lot $95/sqft · waterfront premium

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great potential! Waterfront home in Sportsman Paradise, Trinity, TX. The interior of the home has been mostly remodeled with all new kitchen appliances and cabinetry, floor covering throughout and beautiful patio doors in the living room to take in a majestic view of the river. A little more TLC from a new owner and this could be your weekend paradise!

Key facts

• Patio doors
• Waterfront home
• Majestic view

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETRY
• PATIO DOORS
• MAJESTIC VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity J H (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 280 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $183 of equity ($726 loan paydown + $-543 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 457 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 457 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.31%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,478
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 53.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Hill Top Rd	1.30mi	2/1.0	1,163 (+6%)	5mo	$179,000	$154	48
16 Connor Ln	1.05mi	2/1.0	1,004 (-9%)	2mo	$155,000	$154	45
7 Sowell Ln	1.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+7%)	21mo	$95,000	$81	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,396
• Equity at exit: $27,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $34,209
• Equity at exit: $31,346

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $276	-5% $240	+0% $204	+5% $167	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $157	+0% $204	+5% $250	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $230	base $204	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $105,000 Active 457 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 455 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 454 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 448 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 446 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 445 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 444 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 443 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 440 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 438 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 437 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 436 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 435 DOM
18. 2026-03-24
    price $105,000 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Great potential! Waterfront home in Sportsman Paradise, Trinity, TX. The interior of the home has been mostly remodeled with all new kitchen appliances and cabinetry, floor covering throughout and beautiful patio doors in the living room to take in a majestic view of the river. A little more TLC from a new owner and this could be your weekend paradise!

19. 2025-09-23
    price $115,000 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Great potential! Waterfront home in Sportsman Paradise, Trinity, TX. The interior of the home has been mostly remodeled with all new kitchen appliances and cabinetry, floor covering throughout and beautiful patio doors in the living room to take in a majestic view of the river. A little more TLC from a new owner and this could be your weekend paradise!

20. 2025-03-21
    listed $125,000 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    Great potential! Waterfront home in Sportsman Paradise, Trinity, TX. The interior of the home has been mostly remodeled with all new kitchen appliances and cabinetry, floor covering throughout and beautiful patio doors in the living room to take in a majestic view of the river. A little more TLC from a new owner and this could be your weekend paradise!

21. 2021-12-28
    soldstatus Sold 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

22. 2021-10-29
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

23. 2021-10-22
    price $44,900 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

24. 2021-10-15
    price $49,000 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

25. 2021-10-15
    price $50,000 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

26. 2021-10-14
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

27. 2021-09-30
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

28. 2021-09-13
    listed $55,000 Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Investment property

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This waterfront home has been mostly remodeled with new kitchen appliances and flooring, but requires exterior paint and landscaping improvements to fully realize its potential as a move-in-ready property.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior paint — extensive peeling
• Major landscaping — overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both trim exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · extensive peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both trim exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 634
• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-13 Listed $55,000 HARMLS