Is Hawthorne Plan in DeSoto, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.6% cap rate and $-1,472/mo modeled cash flow at a $437,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Hawthorne Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 2.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,311/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 23.36

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Cash flow +3.4/30.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$437,990

Hawthorne Plan · DeSoto, TX 75115

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily · 821 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Hawthorne floor plan is a single-story home with four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, and a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

<covered porch>
<open kitchen>
<primary suite>

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $438k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (39.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (47.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $231k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.3% in DeSoto — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#589 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Duncanville ISD (suburban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #711 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 821 days — a 12% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,142 (47.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 821 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.48% ✗
Cap rate: 2.59%
Cash-on-cash: -13.22%
DSCR: 0.41
GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $477,232
List price: $437,990
Delta: -8.22%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2014 Mammoth Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,250 (+1%)	6mo	$498,399	$222	65
824 Alamo Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,314 (+4%)	1mo	$473,015	$204	64
833 Alamo Ct	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+4%)	4mo	$449,000	$192	63
2034 Mammoth Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+1%)	10mo	$497,737	$220	63
2041 Picnic Crk	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,521 (+13%)	9mo	$485,000	$192	57
1114 Bogart Cir	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,183 (-2%)	8mo	$299,999	$137	54
821 Alamo Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,046 (-8%)	11mo	$425,000	$208	54
936 Waddle Ln	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (+13%)	7mo	$499,381	$198	52
820 Alamo Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,043 (-9%)	15mo	$439,800	$215	49
2018 Mammoth Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,521 (+13%)	5mo	$495,541	$197	46
1817 Masters Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,528 (+13%)	5mo	$465,000	$184	45
827 Astaire Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,547 (+14%)	11mo	$339,900	$133	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -44.2%
Equity multiple: -0.33×
Total profit: $-177,825
Equity at exit: $71,157

10-year hold

IRR: -99.5%
Equity multiple: -1.26×
Total profit: $-301,606
Equity at exit: $41,262

Cash invested: $133,625 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 23 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply: 12.5 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $466,990 ($189/sqft)
Median days on market: 821 d
This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75115

Rents YoY: -2.6%
Active inventory: 563
Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,311 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,503
Tax est. 1.5%: −$597 /mo · $7,158/yr
Insurance: −$199
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
Net cashflow: $-1,472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,175

Max offer price $264,229

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,142	-5% $-1,307	+0% $-1,472	+5% $-1,637	+10% $-1,802
Rent	-10% $-1,655	-5% $-1,563	+0% $-1,472	+5% $-1,381	+10% $-1,289
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,232	-0.5pp $-1,351	base $-1,472	+0.5pp $-1,596	+1.0pp $-1,721

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $119,308
Closing costs: $14,317
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Wayne Ave Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,149	$1.21	17d	1	0.43mi
1019 Sanders Dr Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,300	$1.64	93d	1	0.53mi
1019 Cedar Run Dr Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,895	$1.29	56d	1	0.58mi
938 Gable Ave Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,895	$1.34	93d	1	0.66mi
1034 Gaynor Ave Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,050	$1.45	62d	1	0.67mi
1007 Lamar Ave Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.5	2106	$2,640	$1.25	4d	1	0.71mi
907 Saint George Pl Desoto, TX	4.0	2.5	2600	$3,500	$1.35	9d	1	1.01mi
628 Taylor Ct Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,895	$1.26	53d	1	1.12mi
511 Shennandoah Dr DeSoto, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,400	$0.98	27d	1	1.25mi
1620 Horizon St Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$1,450	$1.03	41d	1	1.39mi
1424 Cobblestone Dr Desoto, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$8,950	$3.36	71d	1	1.43mi
222 Creekwood Ct Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,146	$1.23	35d	1	1.43mi
1423 Cassandra Cir Desoto, TX	3.0	3.5	2367	$2,500	$1.06	13d	1	1.45mi
407 Hillcroft Cir Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,275	$1.14	56d	1	1.47mi
407 Hillcroft Cir Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,275	$1.14	37d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $437,990 Active 821 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $437,990 Active 819 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $437,990 Active 818 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $437,990 Active 817 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $437,990 Active 816 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $437,990 Active 813 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $437,990 Active 811 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $437,990 Active 810 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $437,990 Active 808 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $437,990 Active 806 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $437,990 Active 805 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $437,990 Active 804 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $437,990 Active 803 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $437,990 Active 802 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $437,990 Active 800 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $437,990 Active 799 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $437,990 Active 798 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $437,990 Active 797 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $437,990 Active 796 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $437,990 Active 795 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $437,990 Active 794 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $437,990 Active 793 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $437,990 Active 792 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $437,990 Active 791 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $437,990 Active 789 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $437,990 Active 788 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $437,990 Active 787 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $437,990 Active 786 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $437,990 Active 785 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $437,990 Active 784 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $437,990 Active 783 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $437,990 Active 782 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $437,990 Active 781 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $437,990 Active 780 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $437,990 Active 779 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $437,990 Active 778 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $437,990 Active 776 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $437,990 Active 774 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $437,990 Active 773 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $437,990 Active 770 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $437,990 Active 769 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $437,990 Active 768 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $437,990 Active 767 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $437,990 Active 765 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $437,990 Active 764 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $437,990 Active 761 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $437,990 Active 760 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $437,990 Active 759 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $437,990 Active 756 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $437,990 Active 755 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,737
− Mortgage interest: −$26,732
− Property taxes: −$7,158
− Insurance: −$2,386
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
− Management: −$2,219
− Depreciation: −$13,883
Taxable loss: −$26,861

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,447
After-tax cash flow: $-11,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Hawthorne plan is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern features, ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens look and improves comfort ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

High Duncanville H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Duncanville ISD
NCES district ID: 4817640
Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $50,979
Composite: 21.71/100
National rank: #8270
State rank: #711 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — DeSoto

Score: 66/100
State rank: #589
US rank: #11236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: DeSoto, TX
County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
City population: 56,211
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 56,211
Household income: $82,782
Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% White 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -170.49%
Current HPI: 272.1565
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.60%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2024-05-10 Listed $437,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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