397 John Day Rd · Canton, MS 39046

$39,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1977 1.00 ac lot $24/sqft · 73% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunities like this don't stay on the market long in today's climate. Positioned in a growing area with strong rental and resale demand, this property offers the kind of upside investors actively search for but rarely find at this entry point. With the right vision, it can be transformed into a standout asset with significant value potential. The property sits on a generous lot in a quiet, established setting and already carries the foundation of a structure that can be reworked, updated, or reimagined depending on your exit strategy. Whether you're looking to flip, hold as a rental, or add to a long-term portfolio, the flexibility here is what makes it compelling. Inventory like this is becoming increasingly scarce, and deals with this level of spread between acquisition cost and potential value don't last. Serious investors understand the importance of acting quickly when the numbers and location align, this is one of those situations. Bring your contractor, run your numbers, and move fast, opportunities in this range are typically spoken for before they ever get a second look.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 4.0% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.75%
• DSCR: 5.17
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,691
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -73.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $49,164
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.25×
• Total profit: $114,555
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $386

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $895	-5% $884	+0% $873	+5% $862	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $755	-5% $814	+0% $873	+5% $932	+10% $991
Rate	-1.0pp $893	-0.5pp $883	base $873	+0.5pp $862	+1.0pp $852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $74,900 Active 1103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1103 chars)

    Opportunities like this don't stay on the market long in today's climate. Positioned in a growing area with strong rental and resale demand, this property offers the kind of upside investors actively search for but rarely find at this entry point. With the right vision, it can be transformed into a standout asset with significant value potential. The property sits on a generous lot in a quiet, established setting and already carries the foundation of a structure that can be reworked, updated, or reimagined depending on your exit strategy. Whether you're looking to flip, hold as a rental, or add to a long-term portfolio, the flexibility here is what makes it compelling. Inventory like this is becoming increasingly scarce, and deals with this level of spread between acquisition cost and potential value don't last. Serious investors understand the importance of acting quickly when the numbers and location align, this is one of those situations. Bring your contractor, run your numbers, and move fast, opportunities in this range are typically spoken for before they ever get a second look.

16. 1986-06-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $7,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Canton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,160
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $74,900 MLSU
• 1986-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $945 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.