15185 Marem Dr · Bon Secour, AL 36535

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 234 Days on market

Built 2017 7,971 sqft lot Est $217k · at est. $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered patio
• Storage shed

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LVP AND TILE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bon Secour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swift Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #416 of 627 statewide, top 67%, 118 students, 92% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 38% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 883 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,685 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,404
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15131 Marem Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+2%)	1mo	$220,000	$181	92
15030 Marem Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	10mo	$225,000	$183	78
8833 Sherman Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+3%)	22mo	$260,000	$212	48
8921 Sherman Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+11%)	19mo	$225,000	$170	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,379
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,821
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 883
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $164	+0% $102	+5% $-212	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $32	+0% $102	+5% $171	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $158	base $102	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 212 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    status Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-05-08
    historical Active Under Contract 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-04-15
    price $220,000 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2026-02-16
    price $232,000 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

22. 2025-10-30
    listed $237,600 Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath cottage offers 1,188 sq. ft. of comfortable living in a quiet neighborhood, just 20 minutes from the beach. Enjoy affordable coastal living with stylish upgrades throughout — including granite countertops, LVP and tile flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout. The single-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a spacious backyard with a 10'x12' storage shed and privacy fence — perfect for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and beautiful local golf courses. Don’t miss this move-in ready gem — schedule your showing today! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 98.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,599
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$624
• After-tax cash flow: $1,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bon Secour

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 923
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $220,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $232,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-30 Listed $237,600 BCAR

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $454 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.