451 Baleigh Way · Canton, MS 39046

$309,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 247 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 8,712 sqft lot $174/sqft · 15% below area Est $364k · 15% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this brand-new construction! This house offers 1,785 sq ft of living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Placed in a great location with access to an excellent school district, this home is perfect for families. The open floor plan has a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and stylish finishes. Residents will also enjoy the vibrant community, complete with a neighborhood pool for relaxation and fun! This home combines comfort, style, and convenience in one package! Builder is offering a 30 Year FIXED Rate Buy Down Program with a possible 4.99% rate or $10k in credits - Certain Exclusions Apply - Ask a realtor for more info!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New construction
• Great location

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GREAT LOCATION
• EXCELLENT SCHOOL DISTRICT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 417 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,579/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,908 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,010
• List price: $309,999
• Delta: -14.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 Baleigh Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,809 (+1%)	0mo	$319,000	$176	88
702 Kathleen Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-5%)	0mo	$314,999	$185	82
589 E Park St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,855 (+4%)	0mo	$345,000	$186	79
612 Peregan St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,762 (-1%)	1mo	$329,900	$187	79
111 Willow Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,930 (+8%)	0mo	$365,900	$190	72
203 Baleigh Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+10%)	1mo	$348,000	$178	70
515 Portner Way	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,964 (+10%)	0mo	$376,900	$192	67
385 Aurora Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+3%)	1mo	$347,500	$189	66
118 Sweetbriar Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+5%)	1mo	$317,000	$169	62
433 Aurora Cir	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,849 (+4%)	0mo	$359,000	$194	61
209 Ashbury Cv	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,945 (+9%)	1mo	$332,900	$171	56
441 Aurora Cir	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (+15%)	0mo	$399,000	$194	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-56,873
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,966
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 58 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.5 mo (40%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $354,999 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $294,826

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $2	+0% $-105	+5% $-212	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-207	+0% $-105	+5% $-3	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-26	base $-105	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 Willow Way Canton, MS	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	93d	1	0.51mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	63d	1	0.57mi
231 Buttonwood Ln Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,700	$1.69	70d	1	0.69mi
161 Harvey Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1687	$2,350	$1.39	93d	1	1.27mi
102 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,253	$1.50	72d	1	1.41mi
104 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,156	$1.51	93d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $309,999 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $309,999 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $309,999 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $309,999 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $309,999 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $309,999 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $309,999 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $309,999 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $309,999 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $309,999 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,999 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,999 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    statusdays on market $309,999 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $309,999 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this brand-new construction! This house offers 1,785 sq ft of living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Placed in a great location with access to an excellent school district, this home is perfect for families. The open floor plan has a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and stylish finishes. Residents will also enjoy the vibrant community, complete with a neighborhood pool for relaxation and fun! This home combines comfort, style, and convenience in one package! Builder is offering a 30 Year FIXED Rate Buy Down Program with a possible 4.99% rate or $10k in credits - Certain Exclusions Apply - Ask a realtor for more info!

16. 2026-04-23
    price $314,999 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this brand-new construction! This house offers 1,785 sq ft of living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Placed in a great location with access to an excellent school district, this home is perfect for families. The open floor plan has a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and stylish finishes. Residents will also enjoy the vibrant community, complete with a neighborhood pool for relaxation and fun! This home combines comfort, style, and convenience in one package! Builder is offering a 30 Year FIXED Rate Buy Down Program with a possible 4.99% rate or $10k in credits - Certain Exclusions Apply - Ask a realtor for more info!

17. 2025-10-08
    listed $319,999 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome home to this brand-new construction! This house offers 1,785 sq ft of living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Placed in a great location with access to an excellent school district, this home is perfect for families. The open floor plan has a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and stylish finishes. Residents will also enjoy the vibrant community, complete with a neighborhood pool for relaxation and fun! This home combines comfort, style, and convenience in one package! Builder is offering a 30 Year FIXED Rate Buy Down Program with a possible 4.99% rate or $10k in credits - Certain Exclusions Apply - Ask a realtor for more info!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,476
• − Management: −$2,476
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$6,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new construction home is in excellent condition with a modern design and high-end finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch — Enhances curb appeal and provides a welcoming entrance ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Canton Elementary School F MS #279/375 Nat'l #36,758/41,679 Middle Germantown Middle School B MS #14/179 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Germantown High School F MS #59/197 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Canton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison · 122,509 people
• City population: 29,160
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,160
• Household income: $48,288
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $309,999 MLSU
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $314,999 MLSU
• 2025-10-08 Listed $319,999 MLSU