8968 Winter Gardens Blvd Spc 1 · Winter Gardens, CA 92040

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition 0.53 ac lot Est $306k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new Home! This charming, well maintained home is located in a quiet All Age community in Lakeside. The home is 3 BR, 2 BA with a large yard and lots of storage. Open floor plan, coved ceilings, recessed lighting and ceiling fans in every room. The spacious open kitchen has an eat-at island, lots of cabinets and counter space. The stainless steel appliances and the washer/dryer are included! The primary bedroom and bath feature a walk-in closet, dual sink vanity and a step-in shower. Solar is fully paid off, providing energy efficiency and savings. Enjoy the large fenced yard has synthetic grass with plenty of room to BBQ and entertain. Central AC and a matching shed. You'll

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Large yard

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• SOLAR PAID OFF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,795 (land lease applies)
• HOA & community: Community sidewalks; Park managed by J&H Property Management

Exterior

• Parking: Accessible parking features
• Utilities: Water/sewer/power information not provided
• Home design: Single-story home; Mobile home remains on site; Entry on main level
• Construction: Asbestos shingle roof; Concrete and hardboard construction; Synthetic stucco; Drywall interior walls; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Porch; Open patio; Patio; Wrap-around patio; Shed; Fenced yard with wire, wood and privacy fencing; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen with quartz counters; Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen island; Butler’s pantry; Walk-in pantry; Gas oven; Built-in range; Gas range; Range/stove hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Trash compactor; Hot water circulator; Vented exhaust fan; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet; See remarks
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with double sinks; Double sinks in bath(s); Bathtub; Shower in tub; Privacy toilet door; Exhaust fan(s); Remodeled bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Dry bar; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Open floor plan; Storage space; Entry on main level; All bedrooms on main level; One story
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,856
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8661 Wintergardens Blvd #74	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-4%)	0mo	$295,000	$192	72
9100 Single Oak Dr #103	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	13mo	$309,000	$215	53
9100 Single Oak Dr #110	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-13%)	2mo	$230,000	$165	53
9100 Single Oak Dr #69	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	10mo	$195,000	$135	50
9100 Single Oak Dr Spc 10	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (+11%)	11mo	$285,000	$161	47
9100 Single Oak Dr #74	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-14%)	12mo	$304,000	$222	46
11747 Walnut Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,795 (+13%)	21mo	$715,000	$398	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-22,199
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $24,430
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $656	-5% $546	+0% $435	+5% $324	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $303	+0% $435	+5% $567	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $596	-0.5pp $516	base $435	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9205 Emerald Grove Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1652	$3,650	$2.21	3d	1	0.40mi
9830 Summersun Ln Lakeside, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1325	$2,700	$2.04	2d	1	1.11mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	0d	1	1.17mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	3d	1	1.17mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $330,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,216
• − Management: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $5,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern home in a quiet community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace blinds — Improves light control and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace blinds — Improves light control and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $330,000 CRMLS