6525 N Lost Dutchman Dr · Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$8,250,000

6 bd · 9.0 ba · 9,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1998 1.27 ac lot $846/sqft · 18% below area Est $10089k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of Paradise Valley on 1.27 acres, this nearly 9,800 sq ft estate offers 6 bedrooms, 6 full and 2 half baths, blending luxury with thoughtful design. The expansive layout features a massive chef's kitchen with dual islands, gas cooktop, and double ovens, opening seamlessly to elegant living spaces with stunning Camelback Mountain views. The private master wing includes dual closets, vanities, toilets, a steam shower, and direct access to a rare indoor lap pool. Outdoors, enjoy a resort-style pool and spa. Complete with a 4-car garage, this home delivers exceptional comfort, privacy, and premier location living. privacy, a large walk-in closet for effortless organization, and an elegant bathroom with a separate shower & tub. The large office displays beautiful coffered ceilings and walls, with built-in shelving, making it perfect for a study room or workspace. Step outside to find your backyard oasis, featuring abundant seating space with travertine pavers, an expansive covered patio perfect for entertaining, a built-in BBQ, a relaxing spa, and a sparkling pool. This home is beautifully designed to be a paradise for you and your loved ones, offering the perfect blend of luxury, modern comfort, privacy, and mountain views. Just WOW!

Key facts

• 1.27 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $8.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45k ($-535k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $406k (95.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $484k (94.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $406k (95.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $882k of equity ($57k loan paydown + $825k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.42M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($7.75M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $750k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.26M; list at $8.25M implies a 553% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $405,976 (95.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 95% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.06% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.15%
• DSCR: -0.03
• GRM: 141.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $10,088,522
• List price: $8,250,000
• Delta: -18.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5221 E Arroyo Rd	0.75mi	5/6.5 (-1)	9,376 (-4%)	6mo	$8,025,000	$856	39
5842 E Redwing Rd	0.32mi	5/5.5 (-1)	8,306 (-15%)	9mo	$6,750,000	$813	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $1,675,142
• Equity at exit: $7,432,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $7,218,161
• Equity at exit: $16,027,935

Cash invested: $2,310,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 141.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,845 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$43,264
• Tax from tax record: −$1,692 /mo · $20,299/yr
• Insurance: −$3,438
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,017
• Net cashflow: $-44,566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $61,257

Max offer price $405,976

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,062,500
• Closing costs: $247,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6443 E Malcomb Dr Unit 1558677P Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	6.5	7265	$21,932	$3.02	7d	1	1.01mi
6602 N Praying Monk Rd Paradise Valley, AZ	7.0	5.5	7000	$24,995	$3.57	24d	1	1.05mi
4819 E Hummingbird Ln Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	5.5	6930	$19,999	$2.89	24d	1	1.24mi
5761 N Casa Blanca Dr Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	7364	$55,000	$7.47	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,250,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $8,250,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,250,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $8,250,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,250,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,250,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $8,250,000 1274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Paradise Valley on 1.27 acres, this nearly 9,800 sq ft estate offers 6 bedrooms, 6 full and 2 half baths, blending luxury with thoughtful design. The expansive layout features a massive chef's kitchen with dual islands, gas cooktop, and double ovens, opening seamlessly to elegant living spaces with stunning Camelback Mountain views. The private master wing includes dual closets, vanities, toilets, a steam shower, and direct access to a rare indoor lap pool. Outdoors, enjoy a resort-style pool and spa. Complete with a 4-car garage, this home delivers exceptional comfort, privacy, and premier location living. privacy, a large walk-in closet for effortless organization, and an elegant bathroom with a separate shower & tub. The large office displays beautiful coffered ceilings and walls, with built-in shelving, making it perfect for a study room or workspace. Step outside to find your backyard oasis, featuring abundant seating space with travertine pavers, an expansive covered patio perfect for entertaining, a built-in BBQ, a relaxing spa, and a sparkling pool. This home is beautifully designed to be a paradise for you and your loved ones, offering the perfect blend of luxury, modern comfort, privacy, and mountain views. Just WOW!

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $8,999,900 Active 1274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Paradise Valley on 1.27 acres, this nearly 9,800 sq ft estate offers 6 bedrooms, 6 full and 2 half baths, blending luxury with thoughtful design. The expansive layout features a massive chef's kitchen with dual islands, gas cooktop, and double ovens, opening seamlessly to elegant living spaces with stunning Camelback Mountain views. The private master wing includes dual closets, vanities, toilets, a steam shower, and direct access to a rare indoor lap pool. Outdoors, enjoy a resort-style pool and spa. Complete with a 4-car garage, this home delivers exceptional comfort, privacy, and premier location living. privacy, a large walk-in closet for effortless organization, and an elegant bathroom with a separate shower & tub. The large office displays beautiful coffered ceilings and walls, with built-in shelving, making it perfect for a study room or workspace. Step outside to find your backyard oasis, featuring abundant seating space with travertine pavers, an expansive covered patio perfect for entertaining, a built-in BBQ, a relaxing spa, and a sparkling pool. This home is beautifully designed to be a paradise for you and your loved ones, offering the perfect blend of luxury, modern comfort, privacy, and mountain views. Just WOW!

17. 2026-04-15
    price $8,999,900 1274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Paradise Valley on 1.27 acres, this nearly 9,800 sq ft estate offers 6 bedrooms, 6 full and 2 half baths, blending luxury with thoughtful design. The expansive layout features a massive chef's kitchen with dual islands, gas cooktop, and double ovens, opening seamlessly to elegant living spaces with stunning Camelback Mountain views. The private master wing includes dual closets, vanities, toilets, a steam shower, and direct access to a rare indoor lap pool. Outdoors, enjoy a resort-style pool and spa. Complete with a 4-car garage, this home delivers exceptional comfort, privacy, and premier location living. privacy, a large walk-in closet for effortless organization, and an elegant bathroom with a separate shower & tub. The large office displays beautiful coffered ceilings and walls, with built-in shelving, making it perfect for a study room or workspace. Step outside to find your backyard oasis, featuring abundant seating space with travertine pavers, an expansive covered patio perfect for entertaining, a built-in BBQ, a relaxing spa, and a sparkling pool. This home is beautifully designed to be a paradise for you and your loved ones, offering the perfect blend of luxury, modern comfort, privacy, and mountain views. Just WOW!

18. 2011-02-24
    soldstatus $1,263,000 Closed 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Terrific home! Built by Desert Winds Dev., 5 BR estate situated on 1.27 acre lot located in heart of PV. Large LR + big Kitchen w/adjacent walk behind wet bar w/refrigerator perfect for entertaining. Large family room on each side of wet bar making one of them ideal for a pool table or game table - Family Room and Bar are completely open to Kitchen. Really large Master Closet with island. Covered back patio with private pool and spa, complete w/ outdoor built-in BBQ and fireplace; this backyard paradise provides a great escape only steps away. Soft Water system. Side entry, 4car garage offers plenty of room for toys. Second home since new explains why it looks brand new. Peer through manicured landscape to find great views Mummy Mountain to North+famous Camelback Mountain to South.

19. 2011-02-24
    soldstatus $1,263,000

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Terrific home! Built by Desert Winds Dev., 5 BR estate situated on 1.27 acre lot located in heart of PV. Large LR + big Kitchen w/adjacent walk behind wet bar w/refrigerator perfect for entertaining. Large family room on each side of wet bar making one of them ideal for a pool table or game table - Family Room and Bar are completely open to Kitchen. Really large Master Closet with island. Covered back patio with private pool and spa, complete w/ outdoor built-in BBQ and fireplace; this backyard paradise provides a great escape only steps away. Soft Water system. Side entry, 4car garage offers plenty of room for toys. Second home since new explains why it looks brand new. Peer through manicured landscape to find great views Mummy Mountain to North+famous Camelback Mountain to South.

20. 2011-01-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Terrific home! Built by Desert Winds Dev., 5 BR estate situated on 1.27 acre lot located in heart of PV. Large LR + big Kitchen w/adjacent walk behind wet bar w/refrigerator perfect for entertaining. Large family room on each side of wet bar making one of them ideal for a pool table or game table - Family Room and Bar are completely open to Kitchen. Really large Master Closet with island. Covered back patio with private pool and spa, complete w/ outdoor built-in BBQ and fireplace; this backyard paradise provides a great escape only steps away. Soft Water system. Side entry, 4car garage offers plenty of room for toys. Second home since new explains why it looks brand new. Peer through manicured landscape to find great views Mummy Mountain to North+famous Camelback Mountain to South.

21. 2010-10-19
    listed $1,399,900 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    Terrific home! Built by Desert Winds Dev., 5 BR estate situated on 1.27 acre lot located in heart of PV. Large LR + big Kitchen w/adjacent walk behind wet bar w/refrigerator perfect for entertaining. Large family room on each side of wet bar making one of them ideal for a pool table or game table - Family Room and Bar are completely open to Kitchen. Really large Master Closet with island. Covered back patio with private pool and spa, complete w/ outdoor built-in BBQ and fireplace; this backyard paradise provides a great escape only steps away. Soft Water system. Side entry, 4car garage offers plenty of room for toys. Second home since new explains why it looks brand new. Peer through manicured landscape to find great views Mummy Mountain to North+famous Camelback Mountain to South.

22. 1998-05-15
    soldstatus $1,049,900
23. 1997-08-08
    soldstatus $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $20,299 · $1,692/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $54,450 · $4,538/mo
• Expected delta: +$34,151/yr (+$2,846/mo · 168.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$462,128
• − Property taxes: −$20,299
• − Insurance: −$41,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,651
• − Management: −$4,651
• − Depreciation: −$240,000
• Taxable loss: −$714,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$171,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-363,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paradise Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #15675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise Valley, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 17,904
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2438.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $8,250,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $8,999,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $8,999,900 ARMLS
• 2011-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,263,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-24 Sold (MLS) $1,263,000 ARMLS
• 2011-01-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2010-10-19 Listed $1,399,900 ARMLS
• 1998-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,049,900 Public Records
• 1997-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,299 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.