406 Jefferson St · Elmira, NY 14904

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1880 4,620 sqft lot $30/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project with potential? This 4-bedroom home is ready to be brought back to life and transformed into something truly special. With plenty of space to work with, it offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and make it their own. The home features washer and dryer hookups on the first floor, off-street parking, and a shed for extra storage. An additional lot is included, giving you even more room to expand, garden, or create your ideal outdoor space. With the right vision and a little TLC, this property could really shine!

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Additional lot
• Off-street parking

Tags

• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE
• ADDITIONAL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.31%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,398
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -53.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
558 Coburn St	0.15mi	4/1.5	1,716 (+3%)	0mo	$125,020	$73	86
421 Jefferson St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,688 (+1%)	5mo	$85,106	$50	84
507 Partridge St	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,592 (-5%)	3mo	$106,500	$67	74
478 Mount Zoar St	0.07mi	4/1.0	1,456 (-13%)	2mo	$35,000	$24	74
309 Broadway St	0.21mi	4/1.0	1,468 (-12%)	3mo	$78,000	$53	67
631 Pennsylvania Ave	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,787 (+7%)	2mo	$67,000	$37	66
551 Lyon St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,586 (-5%)	3mo	$158,000	$100	65
413 West Hudson St	0.32mi	4/1.5	1,888 (+13%)	1mo	$45,000	$24	60
254 South Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,828 (+9%)	2mo	$109,000	$60	60
777 Pennsylvania Ave	0.70mi	4/1.5	1,620 (-3%)	6mo	$110,000	$68	55
55 Hoffman St	0.69mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,785 (+7%)	0mo	$115,000	$64	49
714 Pennsylvania Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,906 (+14%)	2mo	$169,000	$89	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $36,657
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $89,590
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $737	-5% $719	+0% $702	+5% $685	+10% $668
Rent	-10% $597	-5% $650	+0% $702	+5% $755	+10% $807
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $715	base $702	+0.5pp $689	+1.0pp $676

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	44d	1	0.59mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	44d	1	0.80mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	0.98mi
355 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 582-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $65,000 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Looking for a project with potential? This 4-bedroom home is ready to be brought back to life and transformed into something truly special. With plenty of space to work with, it offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and make it their own. The home features washer and dryer hookups on the first floor, off-street parking, and a shed for extra storage. An additional lot is included, giving you even more room to expand, garden, or create your ideal outdoor space. With the right vision and a little TLC, this property could really shine!

19. 2016-03-10
    soldstatus $36,000
20. 2002-08-23
    soldstatus $42,177
21. 2002-08-23
    soldstatus $12,500
22. 2002-07-31
    soldstatus $12,500 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    HOUSE IS TO BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITION- NO EXCEP TIONS. CONTRACT AVAILABLE AT LISTER. COMMISSION $2500 SPLIT 50/50, PLUS $1000 BONUS TO THE SELLING AGENT.

23. 2002-06-07
    listed $13,500 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    HOUSE IS TO BE SOLD IN 'AS IS' CONDITION- NO EXCEP TIONS. CONTRACT AVAILABLE AT LISTER. COMMISSION $2500 SPLIT 50/50, PLUS $1000 BONUS TO THE SELLING AGENT.

24. 2000-04-21
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $6,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $65,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,177 Public Records
• 2002-07-31 Sold (MLS) $12,500 UNYREIS
• 2002-06-07 Listed $13,500 UNYREIS
• 2000-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,860 · -12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.