125 Providence St · Waverly, NY 14892

$28,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1890 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity! This 4 bedroom home comes with a vacant lot. Over 1/2 acre in town. Endless possibilities. Some of the work has been done. Furnace works, new bilco doors. Sold as-is and priced to sell.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Cap rate 44.0% vs local median 4.6% in Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Waverly Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #480 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $972 of equity ($194 loan paydown + $778 appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.61%
• DSCR: 6.99
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 1/2 Providence St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,634 (-13%)	2mo	$120,000	$73	68
12 Tioga	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (-0%)	13mo	$180,000	$96	66
446 Pennsylvania Ave	0.13mi	4/1.5	2,151 (+14%)	6mo	$140,000	$65	65
536 Fulton St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,844 (-2%)	4mo	$135,000	$73	61
431 Loder St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,874 (-0%)	15mo	$75,000	$40	58
214 William St	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-5%)	16mo	$195,000	$110	52
2473 Pennsylvania Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,791 (-5%)	16mo	$240,000	$134	50
20 Court St	0.70mi	4/1.0	1,688 (-10%)	3mo	$265,000	$157	46
32 Lyman Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,066 (+10%)	12mo	$175,000	$85	41
434 Clark St	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,136 (+14%)	16mo	$176,600	$83	41
35 Broad Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,680 (-11%)	6mo	$242,000	$144	37
374 Loder St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,632 (-13%)	16mo	$150,000	$92	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $59,080
• Equity at exit: $12,242

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.87×
• Total profit: $132,260
• Equity at exit: $18,600

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14892

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2023-06-14
   historical
2. 2023-02-13
   soldstatus $19,000 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Investment opportunity! This 4 bedroom home comes with a vacant lot. Over 1/2 acre in town. Endless possibilities. Some of the work has been done. Furnace works, new bilco doors. Sold as-is and priced to sell.

3. 2022-09-24
   listed $28,000

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Investment opportunity! This 4 bedroom home comes with a vacant lot. Over 1/2 acre in town. Endless possibilities. Some of the work has been done. Furnace works, new bilco doors. Sold as-is and priced to sell.

4. 2022-09-24
   listed $39,500 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Investment opportunity! This 4 bedroom home comes with a vacant lot. Over 1/2 acre in town. Endless possibilities. Some of the work has been done. Furnace works, new bilco doors. Sold as-is and priced to sell.

5. 2020-03-25
   historical
6. 2020-01-26
   listed $39,900
7. 2019-12-06
   historical
8. 2019-06-06
   listed $44,900
9. 2000-03-09
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $10,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $7,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waverly Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630270
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,935
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #4544
• State rank: #480 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,531

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Current HPI: 236.7714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2023-06-14 Delisted — NMPA
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $19,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-09-24 Listed $39,500 UNYREIS
• 2022-09-24 Listed $28,000 NMPA
• 2020-03-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2020-01-26 Listed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-12-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2019-06-06 Listed $44,900 UNYREIS
• 2000-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,825 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.