19121 Elderberry St SW · Grand Mound, WA 98579

$300,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1979 1.03 ac lot Est $431k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your animals and toys to this affordable home on 1 acre of usable land. Plenty of room for RV parking w/ 50 amp. Shop has loft storage and large rolling doors. The large back yard is flat, dry, and partially fenced. Finish it to give your animals more room to roam. Fenced enclosure behind the shop could be a dog kennel or garden space. A fire pit is just off the back deck for outdoor entertaining. Inside is spacious, clean and livable but needs work. This 1782 sq ft home has been used as a 3-bedroom. It includes a 5 piece primary suite with walk-in closet, kitchen with breakfast bar, and plenty of extra space with a den and bonus room. The woodstove saves electricity. Cash or possibly

Key facts

• Back yard
• Rv parking
• Large rolling doors

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• RV PARKING
• LOFT STORAGE
• LARGE ROLLING DOORS
• BACK YARD
• PARTIALLY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RRR 1/5 (county jurisdiction)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Detached garage; RV parking available
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank sewer; Power provided by PSE; Cable connected (Comcast); Internet connected (Xfinity); Energy sources: Electric and wood
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double wide); One story; Entry at main level; Facing east
• Construction: Double wide manufactured home; Peerless make; Metal/vinyl exterior; Metal roof; Tie down foundation; Effective year built 1979; Property condition: Fair
• Exterior features: Deck; Partially fenced yard; Dog run; RV parking; Shop; Garden space; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); Each bathroom includes a tub and a shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Stove / free-standing heating; Window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Dining room; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on the main level; Electric tank water heater (located behind exterior panel on back wall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($743/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.7% in Grand Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#446 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Rochester School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #97 of 291 in WA (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rochester Primary School (522 students, 64% FRL); Rochester Middle School (495 students, 61% FRL); Rochester High School (600 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $300k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $239,500 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $431,244
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19121 Elderberry St SW	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$140	100
18434 Apricot St SW	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+4%)	2mo	$520,000	$281	54
18740 Ivan St SW	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (0%)	18mo	$431,400	$242	50
18437 Elderberry St SW	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (-14%)	1mo	$535,000	$348	44
18524 Ivan St SW	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+1%)	23mo	$430,000	$240	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,784
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-34,381
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98579

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,583/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $147	+0% $62	+5% $-23	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-33	+0% $62	+5% $156	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $138	base $62	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20022 Sagewood Ln SW Unit A Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,395	$1.83	15d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $300,000
3. 2026-04-13
   price $320,000
4. 2026-03-02
   listed $340,000 Active
5. 2021-07-06
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2021-07-06
   listed $140,000
7. 2009-08-10
   soldstatus $83,368

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,357/yr (+$113/mo · 85.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,583
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $1,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester School District
• NCES district ID: 5307470
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,231
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #97 of 291 in WA

Livability — Grand Mound

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #18178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Mound, WA
• Population (ZIP): 13,907

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.25%
• Current HPI: 381.8969
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+259.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $300,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $320,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $340,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $83,368 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,583 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.