3072 E Bay Dr · Fenton, MI 48430

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 1989 Fair condition $36/sqft · 83% below area $850/mo HOA · 51% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton's most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton's shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

Key facts

• Dine-in kitchen
• Water views
• Direct lake access

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• DIRECT LAKE ACCESS
• DINE-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.8% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: State Road Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 425 students, 28% FRL); Andrew G Schmidt Middle School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 717 students, 36% FRL); Fenton Senior High School (math 35% / reading 72%, grade C-, #125 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,102 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.85%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,806
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -82.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3036 E Bay Dr Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	7mo	$76,000	$57	84
14323 Cedar Cove Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	16mo	$53,000	$38	83
14315 Cedar Cove Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	18mo	$69,000	$49	80
3188 Ponemah Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-4%)	1mo	$595,000	$441	76
2433 Fenton Creek Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+1%)	8mo	$375,000	$265	69
3028 E Bay Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+12%)	8mo	$42,500	$27	67
3071 E Bay Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	8mo	$70,000	$44	63
14010 Torrey Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,424 (+2%)	6mo	$280,000	$197	61
14286 Eastview Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-14%)	23mo	$485,000	$404	51
3187 Ponemah Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-10%)	23mo	$220,000	$175	44
14053 Woodview Ct	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,477 (+6%)	19mo	$345,000	$234	42
14302 Swanee Beach Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,500 (+7%)	22mo	$310,000	$207	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-917
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $8,057
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $132	+0% $115	+5% $97	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $49	+0% $115	+5% $180	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $127	base $115	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Georgetown Pkwy Fenton, MI	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,348	$1.19	0d	26	0.75mi
3200 Foley Glen Dr Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,978	$1.82	0d	7	0.82mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	45d	3	0.94mi
1024 North Rd Fenton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,400	$1.72	0d	1	0.94mi
3800 Arbor Dr Fenton, MI	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,749	$2.29	0d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

3. 2026-05-05
   price $49,900 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

4. 2026-05-05
   status Active 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

5. 2026-05-05
   price $49,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

6. 2026-05-05
   status Active 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

7. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton's most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton's shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

8. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton's most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton's shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

9. 2026-03-05
   price $59,900 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

10. 2026-03-05
    price $59,900 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton’s most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton’s shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

11. 2025-11-17
    listed $64,900 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton's most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton's shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

12. 2025-11-17
    listed $64,900 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Welcome to your lake retreat on beautiful Lake Ponemah! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers stunning water views and direct lake access to one of Fenton's most popular all-sports lakes. Enjoy a spacious dine-in kitchen perfect for family meals and entertaining, with windows that fill the space with natural light and overlook the tranquil water. The open, comfortable layout provides easy flow from the kitchen to the living area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. Step outside to relax on the deck or enjoy boating, swimming, and fishing just steps from your door. Conveniently located near downtown Fenton's shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home combines lake life and everyday comfort

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $1,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including siding and roof replacement, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Appears aged and may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace roof — Critical for structural integrity and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Appears aged and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace roof — Critical for structural integrity and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS