11515 Leavenworth Trl · Mead, OK 73449

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2003 3.12 ac lot Est $149k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD PROPERTY SUBJECT TO HUD REGULATIONS & BIDDING PROCEDURES. OFFERED AS IS WITH ALL FAULTS NOT INSURABLE BY HUD. BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5% COMM. BID OPENING DATE 07/10/2006. 421-392739 BUYERS TO VERIFY ALL INFO.

Key facts

• 3.12 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 136 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($174/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#562 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Silo (rural): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #64 of 270 in OK (top 24%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 176 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bryan County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $159k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,791 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11515 Leavenworth Trl	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$70	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $87,462
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $256,714
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73449

• Home prices YoY: 13.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $60	+0% $15	+5% $-30	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-35	+0% $15	+5% $64	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $55	base $15	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   status Active
3. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-14
   price $159,000
5. 2025-11-10
   listed $169,000 Active
6. 2007-05-25
   soldstatus $89,500
7. 2006-09-28
   soldstatus $21,150 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   HUD PROPERTY SUBJECT TO HUD REGULATIONS & BIDDING PROCEDURES. OFFERED AS IS WITH ALL FAULTS NOT INSURABLE BY HUD. BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5% COMM. BID OPENING DATE 07/10/2006. 421-392739 BUYERS TO VERIFY ALL INFO.

8. 2006-06-30
   listed $21,000 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   HUD PROPERTY SUBJECT TO HUD REGULATIONS & BIDDING PROCEDURES. OFFERED AS IS WITH ALL FAULTS NOT INSURABLE BY HUD. BROKERS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 5% COMM. BID OPENING DATE 07/10/2006. 421-392739 BUYERS TO VERIFY ALL INFO.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silo
• NCES district ID: 4027640
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,297
• Composite: 25.4/100
• National rank: #7463
• State rank: #64 of 270 in OK

Livability — Mead

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #562
• US rank: #23551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,063

Population outlook (Bryan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,265 people
• By 2030: 52,866 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 58,018 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 63,073 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 74,439 · +48.1%
• By 2100: 81,743 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bryan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.0% · R 78.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+56.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.61%
• Current HPI: 378.9559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+657.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-21 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $159,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-10 Listed $169,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2007-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2006-09-28 Sold (MLS) $21,150 MLSOK
• 2006-06-30 Listed $21,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $855 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.