4819 W Highway 22 · Samburg, TN 38232

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Rustic hunting lodge across from reel foot lake with a view. Garage and carport (4 cars). Newly added generator that covers the whole house. Full kitchen. Comes with washer and dryer and all other kitchen appliances.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Hunting lodge
• Full kitchen

Tags

• HUNTING LODGE
• REEL FOOT LAKE
• NEWLY ADDED GENERATOR
• FULL KITCHEN
• WASHER AND DRYER
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($838 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#285 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.36%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $31,773
• Equity at exit: $17,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $75,309
• Equity at exit: $27,718

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38232

• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $142/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $302

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $435	+0% $423	+5% $412	+10% $401
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $390	+0% $423	+5% $456	+10% $490
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $434	base $423	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $142 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 100.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$142
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$804
• − Management: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $3,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Samburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #20093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,254

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $142 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.