10130 Timberland Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,004 sqft · Manufactured public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1998 3,768 sqft lot $408/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 3+ Bedroom in the Premiere 55+ Community of Grass Valley. Welcome to the friendly, resident owned 55+ Ponderosa Pines community of Grass Valley. This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured double-wide is one of the largest in the park with 1,600 sq ft of comfortable single-level living. The open floor plan connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere filled with natural light. The kitchen includes a gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, with plenty of storage and workspace. The private primary suite features a full bath and access to a newer deck with a convenient automated chair lift. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for g

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full-house generator
• Gas range

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GAS RANGE
• DETACHED STORAGE SHEDS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• CENTRAL VAC
• FULL-HOUSE GENERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; No land lease
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly fee; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, putting green, pond year-round, game room, picnic area, RV storage, guest parking and more; Association fee billed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Covered detached parking; Guest parking available; RV parking (community amenity)
• Security: Community with pet restrictions
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: other; Underground utilities; Internet available; 220V in kitchen; Generator
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double-wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1998
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured by Fleetwood Homes of California (Suncrest model)
• Exterior features: Carport awning and porch awning; Storage shed(s); Landscape features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood; Dishwasher; Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters; Dining area combined with family/dining
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible elevator installed; Covered deck and uncovered patio; Dual-pane full windows; Storage area; Office and great room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (stacked) in an inside laundry room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.98%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $439
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $43,232
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$408
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $569	+0% $513	+5% $456	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $405	+0% $513	+5% $620	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $563	base $513	+0.5pp $461	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $408 · $4,896/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $200,000 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Contingent (Show) 241 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Contingent (Show) 240 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Contingent (Show) 239 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Contingent (Show) 238 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Contingent (Show) 237 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − HOA: −$4,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $3,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $5,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +126.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.