2338 Conestoga Dr · Leesburg, FL 34748

$157,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 269 Days on market

Built 1988 5,220 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. HOME SWEET HOME! Move in ready with updated throughout. This home has even been retrofitted with updated tie downs and will qualify for all financing options. It features gorgeous, updated Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout, Newer, double pane windows! A spacious open and bright floorplan with a beautiful modern Kitchen featuring Stainless Steel appliances including a NEW refrigerator, Glass Top Range, Microwave and Dishwasher. There is an abundance of Counter space and Cabinetry, PLUS a closet pantry! The main living area is open, spacious and BRIGHT! French doors lead out to a wonderful front, covered, screened Front Lanai. In addition to this, there i

Key facts

• Double pane windows
• Modern kitchen
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTER SPACE
• CLOSET PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $51.40) — fee includes common area taxes, insurance, grounds maintenance, and pool; Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, association-owned recreation; Deed restrictions, buyer approval required; Golf carts permitted; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Corner lot; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $137k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,104
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 Surrey Pl	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	12mo	$80,000	$73	71
616 Old Colony Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	3mo	$92,000	$91	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,254
• Equity at exit: $23,543

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,908
• Equity at exit: $13,652

Cash invested: $44,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,272

Max offer price $157,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,475
• Closing costs: $4,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
822 S Lone Oak Dr Unit B Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	23d	1	0.22mi
2602 Houston Pl Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	5d	1	0.27mi
513 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,699	$1.42	5d	1	0.47mi
502 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,299	$0.89	23d	1	0.48mi
1004 Royal Oak Blvd Unit 1004 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1244	$1,550	$1.25	4d	1	0.68mi
2920 Pecan Ave Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.70mi
2940 Peach St Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,750	$1.36	17d	1	0.74mi
1604 Woodlyn Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,500	$1.38	23d	1	0.74mi
210 N Lone Oak Dr Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	14d	1	0.76mi
200 S Moss St Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	968	$1,500	$1.55	23d	1	0.77mi
1321 Cambridge Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.0	912	$1,800	$1.97	17d	1	0.78mi
1317 Cambridge Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	23d	1	0.79mi
1801 Center St Unit 2 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$1,300	$1.72	23d	1	0.91mi
1220 W Dixie Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	5d	1	1.04mi
1401 Floradel Ave Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	3d	1	1.18mi
301 S 11th St Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	23d	1	1.26mi
716 Marietta St Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	23d	1	1.26mi
1403 Old Harbor Blvd Leesburg, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1079	$1,532	$1.42	3d	9	1.27mi
200 S 11th St Unit 102 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1379	$1,675	$1.21	23d	1	1.30mi
1001 Crawford St Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	14d	1	1.31mi
1001 Crawford St Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	11d	1	1.31mi
200 S 11th St Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$1,675	$1.21	23d	1	1.31mi
1009 Nebraska St Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	12d	1	1.31mi
1112 W Main St Unit B-5 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.33mi
913 Sumter St Unit 102 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,395	$1.29	17d	1	1.34mi
1013 Beecher St Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.37mi
1015 Beecher St Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	853	$1,100	$1.29	23d	1	1.37mi
1009 McCormack St Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,025	$0.73	23d	1	1.38mi
813 S 9th St Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	1.43mi
1711 Birchwood Cir Unit 2 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$900	$1.17	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $157,900 Pending 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,900 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,900 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $157,900 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $157,900 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $157,900 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,900 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,900 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,900 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    price $157,900
11. 2026-04-01
    price $159,900
12. 2025-12-30
    price $165,900
13. 2025-11-03
    price $166,900
14. 2025-10-23
    price $167,900
15. 2025-09-16
    listed $169,900 Active
16. 2025-04-10
    historical
17. 2025-03-28
    status Active
18. 2025-01-27
    status Pending
19. 2024-12-27
    listed $169,900 Active
20. 2022-12-12
    historical
21. 2022-11-16
    listed $149,900 Active
22. 2022-05-16
    soldstatus $137,000
23. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus $137,000 Closed
24. 2022-04-13
    status Pending
25. 2022-04-11
    listed $137,500 Active
26. 2021-12-22
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
27. 2021-12-06
    status Pending
28. 2021-11-29
    listed $57,800 Active
29. 1998-09-09
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$594/yr (+$50/mo · 82.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,845
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$4,593
• Taxable income: $683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $3,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+258.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $157,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $165,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $166,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $167,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-16 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-12 Sold (MLS) $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Listed $137,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-22 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-29 Listed $57,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.