2612 Ozark St · Victoria, TX 77901

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2007 4,199 sqft lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $140k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home delivers big personality in a cozy footprint, featuring high ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a convenient storage building, perfect for extra space and outdoor living. Ideally located near a school with quick highway access, this home offers comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location—all in one inviting package.

Key facts

• Quick highway access
• Near a school
• 4,199 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT STORAGE BUILDING
• QUICK HIGHWAY ACCESS
• NEAR A SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($64/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,602 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,222
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -0.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-25,859
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-35,716
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $45	+0% $5	+5% $-34	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-42	+0% $5	+5% $53	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $41	base $5	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $139,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home delivers big personality in a cozy footprint, featuring high ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a convenient storage building, perfect for extra space and outdoor living. Ideally located near a school with quick highway access, this home offers comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location—all in one inviting package.

18. 2026-03-21
    price $149,900 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home delivers big personality in a cozy footprint, featuring high ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a convenient storage building, perfect for extra space and outdoor living. Ideally located near a school with quick highway access, this home offers comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location—all in one inviting package.

19. 2026-02-01
    listed $159,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home delivers big personality in a cozy footprint, featuring high ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a convenient storage building, perfect for extra space and outdoor living. Ideally located near a school with quick highway access, this home offers comfort, functionality, and an unbeatable location—all in one inviting package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $139,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $149,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $159,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.