1637 SE Paradise Cir · Crystal River, FL 34429

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1992 ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Park your boat in front of your condo! Canal goes out to river and on to the Gulf! Complex has it's own pool and tennis courts. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private dock
• Direct water access

Tags

• PRIVATE DOCK
• DEDICATED TRAILER LOT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (37.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,305 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.09%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-146,198
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -98.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.46×
• Total profit: $-241,021
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34429

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,045/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 6 same-building comps: −$668
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-1,413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,109

Max offer price $100,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,215	-5% $-1,314	+0% $-1,413	+5% $-1,513	+10% $-1,612
Rent	-10% $-1,597	-5% $-1,505	+0% $-1,413	+5% $-1,322	+10% $-1,230
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,237	-0.5pp $-1,324	base $-1,413	+0.5pp $-1,504	+1.0pp $-1,596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 N Afterglow Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,950	$1.97	22d	1	0.88mi
493 N Sams Pt Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	22d	1	1.06mi
450 N Elmwood Pt Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	22d	1	1.18mi
373 NW 14th Pl Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,000	$2.11	22d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $320,000 Active
2. 2024-05-24
   soldstatus $384,000
3. 2013-11-12
   historical
4. 2013-08-16
   listed $110,000
5. 2013-08-01
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2010-07-02
   soldstatus $137,900 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Park your boat in front of your condo! Canal goes out to river and on to the Gulf! Complex has it's own pool and tennis courts. Priced to sell!

7. 2010-06-16
   listed $137,900 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Park your boat in front of your condo! Canal goes out to river and on to the Gulf! Complex has it's own pool and tennis courts. Priced to sell!

8. 2008-04-24
   historical
9. 2007-07-04
   historical
10. 2007-02-02
    listed $318,000
11. 2006-05-24
    listed $379,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,045 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 42.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,045
• − Insurance: −$6,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − HOA: −$8,016
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$23,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• City population: 10,163
• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.92%
• Current HPI: 271.3171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $320,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $384,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-16 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-02 Sold (MLS) $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-16 Listed $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-02 Listed $318,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-24 Listed $379,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,045 · -28.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.