5226 Chelan Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$119,770

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1981 $70/sqft · at area comps Est $123k · at est. ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly Updated & New Price! Your 1,848 sqft. retreat features a thoughtful 3-bedroom split floor plan with private primary suite! Soaring ceilings create a bright, open feel, while two separate living spaces offer wonderful flexibility and multi-family living potential - one flanked by a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The open-concept design seamlessly connects living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for everyday living and easy entertaining. The kitchen has been nicely updated with newer countertops, fresh paint, a modern cooktop, vent hood, refrigerator, and pantry. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and a brand-new walk-in shower! Ventur

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $828 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.69%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,400
• List price: $119,770
• Delta: -2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5402 52nd Ln SE	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+4%)	1mo	$125,000	$70	90
5410 Chelan Ln SE	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+4%)	8mo	$109,900	$61	84
5250 College St SE #18	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-2%)	6mo	$140,000	$83	78
5250 College St SE #29	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+0%)	6mo	$75,000	$44	77
5506 Yakima Ln SE	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	23mo	$135,000	$86	62
4500 Ruddell Rd SE #23	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	19mo	$120,000	$74	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $61,701
• Equity at exit: $17,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $162,639
• Equity at exit: $10,356

Cash invested: $33,536 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$628
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $1,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $119,770

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,942
• Closing costs: $3,593
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5241 52nd Way SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2204	$3,100	$1.41	21d	1	0.18mi
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	44d	1	0.35mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	14d	1	0.37mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	0.47mi
6029 54th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.56mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,485	$2.55	14d	21	0.58mi
6031 Thornbury Pl SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,749	$1.60	14d	1	0.64mi
5208 43rd Ct SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,700	$1.33	44d	1	0.64mi
5207 65th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,695	$1.74	14d	1	0.72mi
4566 Beckonridge Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.73mi
5916 Illinois Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1580	$2,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.75mi
4533 Stonegate St SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1868	$2,695	$1.44	44d	1	0.76mi
4820 41st Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,395	$1.40	14d	1	0.77mi
5407 Komachin Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,500	$1.57	21d	1	0.79mi
6736 Bailey St SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2148	$3,050	$1.42	21d	1	0.86mi
6949 Stone St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,795	$1.63	21d	1	0.99mi
5905 Cherokee Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1570	$2,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.01mi
6720 Alder Glen Dr SE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.0	1548	$3,600	$2.33	44d	1	1.03mi
7053 Radius Loop SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2194	$2,995	$1.37	21d	1	1.11mi
7181 Radius Loop SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2130	$2,900	$1.36	14d	1	1.24mi
3725 Wildspitz Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1774	$2,695	$1.52	44d	4	1.24mi
7317 Fair Oaks Rd SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,400	$1.92	44d	1	1.39mi
3622 57th Ln SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,999	$1.73	14d	1	1.42mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,895	$2.20	14d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,770 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,770 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,770 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,770 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,770 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,770 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,770 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,770 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,770 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,770 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,770 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,770 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,770 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,770 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,770 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    status Active
17. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-13
    price $119,770
19. 2026-03-30
    price $129,770
20. 2026-03-09
    price $139,770
21. 2026-02-17
    listed $149,770 Active
22. 2023-10-18
    soldstatus $184,900 Closed
23. 2023-10-07
    status Pending
24. 2023-10-05
    listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,709
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − Depreciation: −$3,484
• Taxable income: $13,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,343
• After-tax cash flow: $11,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $119,770 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $129,770 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $139,770 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $149,770 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Sold (MLS) $184,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Listed $184,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,105 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.