13135 Sassafras Trl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$389,899

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,576 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 5,400 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Jasmine floorplan is a two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, a half bath, a large loft, and a 2-car garage with storage niche. With 2,576 sq. ft. of living area, the main level features an open-concept layout, with a large great room that seamlessly flows into the dining and kitchen areas. You’ll also find a private primary bedroom, ideal for relaxing after a long day. Your peaceful primary comes with a private en-suite bathroom that includes a spacious walk-in closet. The kitchen features stainless appliances, ample counter space, kitchen island, and a pantry for added storage. The spacious dining area and great room offers direct access to the large covered lana

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Stainless appliances
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $334,401 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-81,966
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-120,524
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,525

Max offer price $369,245

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $-8	+0% $-143	+5% $-277	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-407	-5% $-275	+0% $-143	+5% $-11	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-44	base $-143	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13114 Cedar Elm Ln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1980	$3,000	$1.52	24d	1	0.17mi
13031 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	5.0	2.5	2489	$2,649	$1.06	24d	1	0.21mi
13019 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,975	$1.38	17d	1	0.22mi
12352 49th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,750	$1.24	24d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $389,899
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-03-31
   historical
5. 2026-03-24
   price $384,899
6. 2026-03-02
   status Active
7. 2026-02-27
   historical
8. 2026-02-09
   price $390,899
9. 2026-01-28
   listed $387,899 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$1,949
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,210
• − Management: −$3,210
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$8,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $389,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $384,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $390,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $387,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.