1042 Carrie Ln · Montvale, VA 24122

$114,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 10,454 sqft lot Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level living. Remodeled eat-in kitchen. Family room with woodstove. Upgraded electrical. Enclosed brick porch. Tilt-in replacement windows. Office. Living Room. Storage Room. Freshly painted. Central Air. Quartz Countertops. Ready to move in!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#225 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montvale Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 253 students, 87% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 49% / reading 67%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 535 students, 86% FRL); Liberty High (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 726 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.05%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,064
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1042 Carrie Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$119,900	$134	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $74,858
• Equity at exit: $63,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $183,931
• Equity at exit: $109,123

Cash invested: $32,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24122

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $114,950

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $812	+0% $779	+5% $747	+10% $714
Rent	-10% $633	-5% $706	+0% $779	+5% $852	+10% $926
Rate	-1.0pp $837	-0.5pp $808	base $779	+0.5pp $749	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,738
• Closing costs: $3,448
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $114,950 Active
3. 2017-10-16
   soldstatus $79,950 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   One level living. Remodeled eat-in kitchen. Family room with woodstove. Upgraded electrical. Enclosed brick porch. Tilt-in replacement windows. Office. Living Room. Storage Room. Freshly painted. Central Air. Quartz Countertops. Ready to move in!

4. 2017-09-08
   listed $79,950 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   One level living. Remodeled eat-in kitchen. Family room with woodstove. Upgraded electrical. Enclosed brick porch. Tilt-in replacement windows. Office. Living Room. Storage Room. Freshly painted. Central Air. Quartz Countertops. Ready to move in!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 127.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,439
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − Depreciation: −$3,344
• Taxable income: $7,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $7,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montvale

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #7450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montvale, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,421

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 312.5895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+43.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-20 Listed $114,950 MLSRV
• 2017-10-16 Sold (MLS) $79,950 MLSRV
• 2017-09-08 Listed $79,950 MLSRV

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.