10821 Deaf Smith St · La Porte, TX 77571

$214,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2005 5,501 sqft lot $197/sqft · 6% below area Est $228k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 10821 Deaf Smith in the sought-after Lomax area of La Porte. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and functionality. The kitchen is equipped with white quartz countertops and new appliances, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom features a private half bath and double closets, while both guest bedrooms include generous walk-in closets. The main full bath is spacious and includes a separate, dedicated area for laundry connections. Enjoy tile flooring throughout, along with fresh paint and new light fixtures that give the home a modern, fresh feel. Major updates include a new roof (2024) and a new HVAC system (2026). The home also boasts a large, decked attic with an energy-efficient radiant barrier for comfortable storage. Outside, you’ll find a large covered carport with a double gate for easy parking access and an 8x8' shed to store all your outdoor accessories. Move-in ready and packed with upgrades!

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-971/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in La Porte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#360 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Porte ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lomax El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 514 students, 53% FRL); Lomax J H (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 575 students, 57% FRL); La Porte H S (math 24% / reading 46%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 2,069 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 153% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,563 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,235
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -5.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10821 Deaf Smith St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,092 (0%)	0mo	$214,900	$197	100
10812 Deaf Smith St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-0%)	15mo	$234,900	$216	84
10802 Bois D Arc St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,167 (+7%)	7mo	$210,000	$180	78
10701 Bois D Arc St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$200	77
10917 San Jacinto Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+8%)	4mo	$250,000	$212	76
10915 San Jacinto Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-4%)	20mo	$189,900	$181	71
10700 Bois D Arc St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+11%)	9mo	$229,500	$189	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-40,273
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,912
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77571

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $200,600

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-20	+0% $-81	+5% $-142	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-153	+0% $-81	+5% $-8	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-26	base $-81	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,900 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,900 Pending 45 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   status Active 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   Welcome to 10821 Deaf Smith in the sought-after Lomax area of La Porte. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and functionality. The kitchen is equipped with white quartz countertops and new appliances, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom features a private half bath and double closets, while both guest bedrooms include generous walk-in closets. The main full bath is spacious and includes a separate, dedicated area for laundry connections. Enjoy tile flooring throughout, along with fresh paint and new light fixtures that give the home a modern, fresh feel. Major updates include a new roof (2024) and a new HVAC system (2026). The home also boasts a large, decked attic with an energy-efficient radiant barrier for comfortable storage. Outside, you’ll find a large covered carport with a double gate for easy parking access and an 8x8' shed to store all your outdoor accessories. Move-in ready and packed with upgrades!

4. 2026-04-16
   historical 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   Welcome to 10821 Deaf Smith in the sought-after Lomax area of La Porte. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and functionality. The kitchen is equipped with white quartz countertops and new appliances, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom features a private half bath and double closets, while both guest bedrooms include generous walk-in closets. The main full bath is spacious and includes a separate, dedicated area for laundry connections. Enjoy tile flooring throughout, along with fresh paint and new light fixtures that give the home a modern, fresh feel. Major updates include a new roof (2024) and a new HVAC system (2026). The home also boasts a large, decked attic with an energy-efficient radiant barrier for comfortable storage. Outside, you’ll find a large covered carport with a double gate for easy parking access and an 8x8' shed to store all your outdoor accessories. Move-in ready and packed with upgrades!

5. 2026-04-16
   historical $214,900 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   Welcome to 10821 Deaf Smith in the sought-after Lomax area of La Porte. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers both comfort and functionality. The kitchen is equipped with white quartz countertops and new appliances, perfect for everyday living. The primary bedroom features a private half bath and double closets, while both guest bedrooms include generous walk-in closets. The main full bath is spacious and includes a separate, dedicated area for laundry connections. Enjoy tile flooring throughout, along with fresh paint and new light fixtures that give the home a modern, fresh feel. Major updates include a new roof (2024) and a new HVAC system (2026). The home also boasts a large, decked attic with an energy-efficient radiant barrier for comfortable storage. Outside, you’ll find a large covered carport with a double gate for easy parking access and an 8x8' shed to store all your outdoor accessories. Move-in ready and packed with upgrades!

6. 2016-03-04
   soldstatus
7. 2013-11-15
   soldstatus Sold 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

8. 2013-11-04
   status Pending 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

9. 2013-10-31
   status Pending, Continue to Show 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

10. 2013-10-18
    status Option Pending 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

11. 2013-09-13
    price $80,000 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

12. 2013-08-12
    status Active 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

13. 2013-07-22
    historical 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

14. 2013-07-19
    listed $85,000 Active 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    Cute 3 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath. Open concept.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Porte ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826190
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4151
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Porte

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #7754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Porte, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 38,543
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,543
• Household income: $81,850
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1176.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.81%
• Current HPI: 255.0768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+152.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $214,900 HARMLS
• 2016-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-13 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2013-08-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-19 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,775 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.