50889 Road 426 #10 · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,041 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 4.95 ac lot $869/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the peaceful setting of Sierra Hideaway Mobile Home Park, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, charm, and convenience in the heart of the Sierra foothills. Pride of ownership shines throughout this clean and pristine home, featuring a spacious layout, inviting living spaces, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere. Step outside to enjoy the large deck perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or soaking in the tranquil surroundings along with a lovely yard that adds to the home's charm. Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Oakhurst, shopping, dining, and the south entrance to Yosemite National Park, this is an ideal full-time residen

Key facts

• Large deck
• Peaceful setting
• Lovely yard

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• LOVELY YARD
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Madera County; Directions: From Oakhurst turn right on Road 426 at the talking bear, drive about 3 miles; Sierra Hide-Away is on the left at 50889 Road 426
• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee of $869; Association amenities: Other/None

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level)
• Construction: Sierra Hide Away mobile home; Composition roof; Concrete foundation; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Foothill lot setting; Park space rented

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven (gas); Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range/oven; Gas appliances
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (19.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,488 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-29,776
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-35,790
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $104,488

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $130,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $130,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $130,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2021-12-27
    status Pending Sale
19. 2021-12-18
    historical
20. 2021-11-07
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 53 unhealthy d/yr today · 63 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$834
• After-tax cash flow: $-899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+36.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-12-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-12-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-11-07 Listed $95,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $489 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.