189 Mayflower Dr NW · Calabash, NC 28467

$368,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $155/sqft · at area comps Est $377k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Durham II features five bedrooms and three bathrooms. This open concept floor plan connects the great room and eat-in area, providing a seamless flow for entertaining. The kitchen includes an island with a breakfast bar and two pantries for ample storage space. The primary suite just off the great room features a 12-foot vaulted ceiling, making the space feel every larger. Two secondary bedrooms, both featuring walk-in closets, are located at the front of the home. This home is completed with two large bedrooms upstairs, great for offering privacy to guests.

Key facts

• Eat-in area
• Great room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN AREA
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• TWO PANTRIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $369k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Calabash — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#487 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 99% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,977 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,956
• List price: $368,900
• Delta: -2.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 Lot 4 Mayflower Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,431 (+2%)	2mo	$371,900	$153	80
193 Mayflower Dr NW Lot 30	0.02mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,595 (+9%)	3mo	$395,000	$152	74
786 Night Lotus Dr Lot 43	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,251 (-5%)	2mo	$392,904	$175	74
656 Meadowbrook Ln NW	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,199 (-8%)	0mo	$435,900	$198	72
193 Lot 30 Mayflower Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,595 (+9%)	3mo	$395,000	$152	66
1152 Lot 97 NW Forest Bend Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	3mo	$389,990	$162	61
1152 Forest Bend Dr NW	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	3mo	$389,900	$162	61
1129 Forest Bend Dr NW	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	0mo	$365,000	$152	60
1129 Lot 110 NW Forest Bend Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	0mo	$365,000	$152	60
1091 Rosefield Way	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,250 (-6%)	0mo	$437,230	$194	59
9304 Honey Tree Ln NW #2	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,488 (+4%)	3mo	$415,000	$167	58
9379 Old Salem Way NW	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,614 (+10%)	1mo	$626,900	$240	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-84,758
• Equity at exit: $55,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-105,858
• Equity at exit: $31,896

Cash invested: $103,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $380,450 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 132 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28467

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,534/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,227

Max offer price $312,052

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-265	+0% $-393	+5% $-520	+10% $-648
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-501	+0% $-393	+5% $-285	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-207	-0.5pp $-299	base $-393	+0.5pp $-488	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,225
• Closing costs: $11,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
570 Tullimore Ln NW Carolina Shores, NC	4.0	3.0	2587	$2,800	$1.08	154d	1	0.72mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: For sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $55 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garageTotal of four parking spaces
• Home design: Single-story homeCurrently under constructionBuilt by Mungo Homes (Durham II B model)Home warranty included
• Construction: Built by Mungo Homes
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.24 acresZoned R75

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unfurnished

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $368,900 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $368,900 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $368,900 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $368,900 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $368,900 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $368,900 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $368,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $368,900 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $368,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $368,900 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $368,900 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $368,900 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,900 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $368,900 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $368,900 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $368,900 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $368,900 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on marketlisting id $368,900 Active 190 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $368,900 Active 193 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $368,900 Active 192 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $368,900 Active 191 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $368,900 Active 190 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $368,900 Active 189 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $368,900 Active 188 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $368,900 Active 187 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $368,900 Active 186 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    pricedays on market $368,900 Active 185 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $379,900 Active 184 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $379,900 Active 183 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $379,900 Active 182 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $379,900 Active 181 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $379,900 Active 180 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 179 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $379,900 Active 178 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $379,900 Active 177 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 176 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 175 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 174 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 173 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $379,900 Active 172 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $379,900 Active 171 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $379,900 Active 170 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $379,900 Active 169 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $379,900 Active 167 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $379,900 Active 166 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $379,900 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $379,900 Active 164 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $379,900 Active 163 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $379,900 Active 162 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $379,900 Active 161 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,664
• − Property taxes: −$5,534
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$10,732
• Taxable loss: −$11,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,702
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary F NC #633/1,410 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Shallotte Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Calabash

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #17866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,313
• Household income: $75,341
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.90%
• Current HPI: 133.7186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: For sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $55 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garageTotal of four parking spaces
• Home design: Single-story homeCurrently under constructionBuilt by Mungo Homes (Durham II B model)Home warranty included
• Construction: Built by Mungo Homes
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.24 acresZoned R75

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unfurnished

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $386,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Listed $386,900 CCAR