923 Hamlet Cir · Lakeville, MN 55044

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition $80/sqft · 69% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2018
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes reported $568 (2026)
• HOA & community: Land is leased (land lease $950)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story; Above-grade living area 1,248
• Construction: Manufactured home
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt parking

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No basement; One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 713 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.43%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,852
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -69.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $53,633
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $139,154
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $1,082

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8500 210th St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,755	$1.91	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $99,900 Active 389-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $12,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,908
• After-tax cash flow: $10,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics. The property is move-in ready with a good foundation and structure.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid