8146 Suarez Way · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$710,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,489 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2012 5,934 sqft lot $285/sqft · 5% below area Est $751k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FHA welcome. Welcome to 8146 Suarez a plan Belle model at Bella Strada by Quality-Built-Richmond American-Homes! This impressive 2story Residence Four blends elegance, comfort, and modern living in one of Elk Grove's most desirable neighborhoods. Step inside to a bright natural light throughout. The spacious great room flows seamlessly into a gourmet kitchen featuring slab granite countertops, a large center island with bar seating, walk-in pantry, and premium stainless-steel appliances perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. A downstairs bedroom with a bath is ideal for guests or multi-generational living, while the upstairs extra bedroom provides added flexibility for a home of

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Stone fireplace

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• LUSH LAWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $710k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (47.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($625k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $475k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,786 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.63%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $750,672
• List price: $710,000
• Delta: -5.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8128 Demui Way	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,557 (+3%)	10mo	$680,000	$266	76
9728 Philta	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,618 (+5%)	8mo	$700,000	$267	71
9730 Clemenza Way	0.32mi	5/3.0	2,409 (-3%)	11mo	$700,000	$291	67
9836 Partington Cir	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,301 (-8%)	9mo	$660,000	$287	58
7912 Cellana Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,767 (+11%)	4mo	$775,000	$280	58
9776 Kugler Way	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,350 (-6%)	11mo	$710,000	$302	55
8012 Maiss Way	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,767 (+11%)	8mo	$765,000	$276	54
7205 Abruzzo Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,520 (+1%)	1mo	$748,000	$297	51
7209 Danberg Way	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,315 (-7%)	1mo	$684,000	$295	43
9748 Collie Way	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,740 (+10%)	8mo	$675,000	$246	42
9820 Allen Ranch Way	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,203 (-12%)	11mo	$735,000	$334	42
8215 Red Elk Dr	0.66mi	5/2.5	2,184 (-12%)	10mo	$600,000	$275	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $269,884
• Equity at exit: $639,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $903,876
• Equity at exit: $1,379,374

Cash invested: $198,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,723
• Tax from tax record: −$836 /mo · $10,038/yr
• Insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $-1,926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,146

Max offer price $369,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,524	-5% $-1,725	+0% $-1,926	+5% $-2,127	+10% $-2,328
Rent	-10% $-2,219	-5% $-2,072	+0% $-1,926	+5% $-1,779	+10% $-1,633
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,568	-0.5pp $-1,745	base $-1,926	+0.5pp $-2,110	+1.0pp $-2,297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $177,500
• Closing costs: $21,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9773 Philta Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2564	$3,500	$1.37	5d	1	0.10mi
8418 Everson Ln Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,400	$1.37	24d	1	0.88mi
8008 Poppy Ridge Rd Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2073	$3,375	$1.63	24d	1	0.88mi
10123 Blue Whale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2445	$4,200	$1.72	17d	1	0.93mi
8144 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,599	$1.50	13d	1	0.94mi
8464 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,595	$1.50	4d	1	1.02mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	8d	1	1.04mi
8420 Mondale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2450	$3,950	$1.61	44d	1	1.06mi
9772 Ellsmere Way Elk Grove, CA	5.0	3.5	3164	$3,700	$1.17	44d	1	1.07mi
9772 Ellsmere Way Elk Grove, CA	5.0	4.0	3164	$3,700	$1.17	8d	1	1.07mi
8471 Anker Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$3,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.17mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	21d	1	1.23mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	23d	1	1.23mi
8151 Lavigne Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2928	$3,445	$1.18	44d	1	1.27mi
9637 Misty Blue Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2605	$2,925	$1.12	44d	1	1.33mi
10446 Tamburlane Dr Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,495	$1.30	44d	1	1.34mi
8358 Akino Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2321	$3,200	$1.38	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $710,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $710,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $710,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $710,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $710,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $710,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $710,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $710,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $710,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $710,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $710,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $710,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $710,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $710,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $710,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2017-08-23
    soldstatus $475,000
17. 2011-11-01
    soldstatus $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,038 · $836/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,038 · $836/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,771
• − Property taxes: −$10,038
• − Insurance: −$3,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,560
• − Management: −$3,560
• − Depreciation: −$20,655
• Taxable loss: −$36,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2017-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,038 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.