1304 Davis Ave · Perry, GA 31069

$219,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2001 0.34 ac lot Est $294k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment Property near downtown Perry, sold as is. Additional lot available to purchase that has a large shop on it. Seller is offering a $20,000 allowance for repairs and upgrades.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Perry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morningside Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #582 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 503 students, 84% FRL); Perry Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #60 of 470 statewide, top 13%, 1,070 students, 51% FRL); Perry High School (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,478 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,601 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.81%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 Davis Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,497 (+2%)	13mo	$249,900	$100	80
1404 Cambridge Rd	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,498 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$106	69
112 Bainbridge Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,531 (+4%)	3mo	$410,000	$162	59
1405 Cambridge Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,612 (+7%)	5mo	$253,000	$97	57
1152 Lovely Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,180 (-11%)	6mo	$215,000	$99	56
1739 Houston Lake Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,163 (-12%)	4mo	$177,000	$82	55
1015 Country Club Rd	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,576 (+5%)	8mo	$347,000	$135	55
1339 Grant St	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,220 (-9%)	8mo	$235,000	$106	47
1109 Kenwood Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-15%)	12mo	$250,000	$120	38
312 Bridgehampton Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,154 (-12%)	5mo	$285,000	$132	37
1411 Main St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (-11%)	11mo	$595,000	$274	33
1411 Main St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,175 (-11%)	11mo	$595,000	$274	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,624
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $37,946
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31069

• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,786/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $628	-5% $565	+0% $503	+5% $441	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $408	+0% $503	+5% $598	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $614	-0.5pp $559	base $503	+0.5pp $446	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1739 Houston Lake Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	2163	$1,895	$0.88	44d	1	0.21mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	44d	1	0.37mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	21d	1	0.37mi
1115 Kingston Rd Perry, GA	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	21d	1	0.41mi
1215 Macon Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,700	$0.96	14d	1	0.95mi
215 Rainsong Trl Perry, GA	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,450	$1.33	21d	1	1.14mi
111 Judy Kay Way Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.21mi
304 Christopher Luke Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,095	$1.18	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-21
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,786
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $2,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$625
• After-tax cash flow: $5,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perry, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,953
• Household income: $74,501
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.01%
• Current HPI: 240.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Pending — CGMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $219,900 CGMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,786 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.