4112 Shelley St · Baton Rouge, LA 70805

$18,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1900 7,840 sqft lot $20/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Age of structure unknown. Property sold as-is with no warranties. Buyer to verify all information including age, measurements, and condition.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($862 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.3% vs local median 4.3% in Baton Rouge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($25k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,380 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.78%
• DSCR: 7.04
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,007
• List price: $18,000
• Delta: -75.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4163 Clayton Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5	897 (-0%)	10mo	$46,000	$51	87
3647 Sherwood St	0.27mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	14mo	$49,900	$55	76
4032 Shelley St	0.03mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	6mo	$95,000	$119	75
4361 Evangeline St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,002 (+11%)	3mo	$75,000	$75	70
4723 Sherwood St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+6%)	2mo	$59,900	$63	66
3640 Sherwood St	0.29mi	2/1.0	954 (+6%)	13mo	$77,000	$81	65
3780 Conrad Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	928 (+3%)	3mo	$16,000	$17	58
4035 Lynn St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	795 (-12%)	8mo	$80,000	$101	47
4743 Shelley St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,020 (+13%)	17mo	$75,000	$74	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $3,977
• Equity at exit: $2,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $6,568
• Equity at exit: $1,556

Cash invested: $5,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70805

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $110/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $680

Max offer price $18,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $149	+0% $144	+5% $139	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $110	+0% $144	+5% $178	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $148	base $144	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,500
• Closing costs: $540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4380 Mohican-Prescott Crossover Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	910	$1,055	$1.16	44d	1	0.44mi
3647 Mission Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	24d	1	0.71mi
2933 Dayton St Unit A Baton Rouge, LA	1.0	1.0	800	$540	$0.68	15d	1	0.72mi
5350 Clayton Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.0	1050	$850	$0.81	44d	1	0.74mi
3577 Mission Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	755	$950	$1.26	20d	1	0.75mi
2852 Dayton St Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	1020	$850	$0.83	24d	1	0.77mi
3160 Wyandotte St Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	1100	$800	$0.73	44d	1	0.87mi
3540 N Foster Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.90mi
5617 Prescott Rd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$900	$1.31	24d	26	0.91mi
4189 W Brookstown Dr Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0	695	$825	$1.19	15d	20	0.96mi
2606 Weller Ave Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	1000	$650	$0.65	44d	1	0.97mi
5665 McClelland Dr Baton Rouge, LA	1.0	1.0	545	$800	$1.47	15d	1	1.00mi
5665 McClelland Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	775	$825	$1.06	24d	1	1.00mi
5665 McClelland Dr Unit 116 Baton Rouge, LA	1.0	1.0	545	$750	$1.38	44d	1	1.01mi
5665 McClelland Dr Unit 245 Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	765	$800	$1.05	44d	1	1.01mi
5665 McClelland Dr Apt 133 Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	775	$825	$1.06	44d	1	1.01mi
5665 McClelland Dr Apt 220 Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.5	870	$950	$1.09	15d	1	1.01mi
5665 McClelland Dr Apt 201 Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.5	870	$1,050	$1.21	44d	1	1.01mi
3942 W Brookstown Dr Baton Rouge, LA	1.0	1.0	650	$675	$1.04	44d	3	1.06mi
3859 Brady St Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	44d	1	1.18mi
3936 Dalton St Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	20d	1	1.25mi
3258 Blackwell Dr Baton Rouge, LA	1.0	1.0	562	$750	$1.33	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $18,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $18,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $18,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $18,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $18,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $18,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $18,000 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Age of structure unknown. Property sold as-is with no warranties. Buyer to verify all information including age, measurements, and condition.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $18,000 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Age of structure unknown. Property sold as-is with no warranties. Buyer to verify all information including age, measurements, and condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,008
• − Property taxes: −$110
• − Insurance: −$5,208
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$524
• Taxable income: $1,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$442
• After-tax cash flow: $1,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Baton Rouge

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #4535

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baton Rouge, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 351,868
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 23,288
• Household income: $25,397
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1980.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.79%
• Current HPI: 75.7121
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $18,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $18,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.