918 County Rd Unit N8446 · Concho, AZ 85924

$132,600

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,907 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

Built 2003 1.49 ac lot ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 3-bath home offering 1,907 sq ft on 1.5 acres of open land. Built in 2003, this property features vaulted wood ceilings, hardwood flooring, exposed beams, and a spacious kitchen with wood cabinetry and tile counters. Multiple heating sources include a wood-burning stove, pellet stove, and stone fireplace. The exterior includes a screened porch and covered entries. Surrounded by wide-open skies and natural terrain, the setting provides ample outdoor space, fresh air, and unobstructed views. A versatile rural property with room to personalize and use in many ways. See a virtual tour online.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Spacious kitchen
• Tile counters

Tags

• VAULTED WOOD CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WOOD CABINETRY
• TILE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.6% in Concho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#419 in AZ) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Concho Elementary District (4160) (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #340 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($917 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,688 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,126
• Equity at exit: $45,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $41,473
• Equity at exit: $59,622

Cash invested: $37,128 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85924

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$166 /mo · $1,989/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $132,600

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,150
• Closing costs: $3,978
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $132,600
3. 2026-01-27
   price $153,000
4. 2025-12-27
   price $173,400
5. 2025-11-25
   price $193,800
6. 2025-10-24
   price $214,200
7. 2025-09-23
   price $234,600
8. 2025-08-07
   listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,428
• − Property taxes: −$1,989
• − Insurance: −$663
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$3,857
• Taxable loss: −$869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concho Elementary District (4160)
• NCES district ID: 0402190
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,563
• Composite: 23.68/100
• National rank: #13246
• State rank: #340 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Concho

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #27645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,336

Population outlook (Apache County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 70,338 people
• By 2030: 69,279 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 66,449 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 61,904 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 47,639 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 30,279 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Native American 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Apache

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.9% · R 40.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+33.7 2016: D+36.9 2012: D+33.9 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Current HPI: 212.6221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-48.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $132,600 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $153,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $173,400 ARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $193,800 ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $214,200 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $234,600 ARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $255,000 ARMLS