412 N Stiles St · Houston, TX 77011

$369,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,851 sqft · Land · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 $200/sqft · at area comps Est $386k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to North Bryan Park, a boutique community by City Choice Homes. This stylish three-story home offers 3 bedrooms and a spacious open-concept second floor designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Beyond the home, you'll enjoy the vibrant lifestyle that the East End offers - easy access to downtown hot spots, amazing restaurants that are walk distance, and proximity to parks. Experience the perfect blend of a City Choice Home and a thriving community in this historic neighborhood. Tour the model home today!

Key facts

• Proximity to parks
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT SECOND FLOOR
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• PROXIMITY TO PARKS
• HISTORIC NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,477/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13351% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,685 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,821
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $171,379
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $509,320
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77011

• Home prices YoY: 30.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,928

Max offer price $306,916

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-252	+0% $-357	+5% $-461	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-454	+0% $-357	+5% $-259	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-262	base $-357	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Edgewood St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2577	$3,250	$1.26	45d	1	0.42mi
2 Jenkins St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,250	$1.81	45d	1	0.47mi
5502 Texas St Unit 1514806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,179	$3.97	0d	1	0.67mi
5504 Texas St Unit 1514810P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,146	$3.95	0d	1	0.68mi
6403 Avenue C Unit 1019625P Houston, TX	2.0–8.0	1.0–4.0	1232	$3,836	$3.11	0d	2	0.94mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531107P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1980	$2,327	$1.18	9d	1	0.99mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531100P Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1258	$2,285	$1.82	0d	2	0.99mi
5121 Polk St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.99mi
4009 Lamar St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,699	$1.24	0d	1	1.08mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	1.12mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,220	$2.40	0d	1	1.16mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	9d	1	1.35mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	45d	1	1.40mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	45d	1	1.41mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	9d	1	1.41mi
3226 McKinney St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2274	$2,500	$1.10	45d	1	1.41mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	45d	1	1.43mi
2414 East Dr Unit Canal St unit Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2063	$2,950	$1.43	9d	1	1.45mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2441 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,280	$1.74	0d	1	1.47mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	6d	1	1.47mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	9d	1	1.47mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,321	$1.77	0d	1	1.47mi
2816 Rusk St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2107	$2,800	$1.33	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-04-17
    listed $2,750
14. 2026-04-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Welcome to North Bryan Park, a boutique community by City Choice Homes. This stylish three-story home offers 3 bedrooms and a spacious open-concept second floor designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Beyond the home, you'll enjoy the vibrant lifestyle that the East End offers - easy access to downtown hot spots, amazing restaurants that are walk distance, and proximity to parks. Experience the perfect blend of a City Choice Home and a thriving community in this historic neighborhood. Tour the model home today!

15. 2026-04-10
    listed $369,900 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Welcome to North Bryan Park, a boutique community by City Choice Homes. This stylish three-story home offers 3 bedrooms and a spacious open-concept second floor designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Beyond the home, you'll enjoy the vibrant lifestyle that the East End offers - easy access to downtown hot spots, amazing restaurants that are walk distance, and proximity to parks. Experience the perfect blend of a City Choice Home and a thriving community in this historic neighborhood. Tour the model home today!

16. 2026-02-25
    listed $379,990 Active
17. 2026-02-24
    historical $2,550
18. 2026-02-23
    historical
19. 2026-02-22
    price $379,900
20. 2026-02-15
    listed $2,550
21. 2026-02-06
    listed $389,900 Active
22. 2020-11-04
    soldstatus
23. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,769 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,433/yr (+$453/mo · 406.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$10,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,639
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,940
• Household income: $50,133
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 29% White 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 81%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 68.18%
• Current HPI: 295.1198
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed for Rent $2,750 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Rental Removed $2,550 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $2,550 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.