311 Oriole Dr · North Middleton, PA 17013

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · Manufactured · 585 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

Key facts

• Energy-saving homes
• Scenic gazebo
• Built 2024

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• SCENIC GAZEBO
• ENERGY-SAVING HOMES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestview El Sch (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 516 students, 51% FRL); Wilson Ms (math 20% / reading 53%, grade F, #307 of 512 statewide, top 61%, 577 students, 52% FRL); Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 585 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 585 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,529
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,561
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $182	+0% $127	+5% $72	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $65	+0% $127	+5% $188	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $167	base $127	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Imperial Ct Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,650	$1.45	45d	1	0.18mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	15d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,900 Active 585 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 582 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 581 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 580 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 579 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 577 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 574 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 573 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 572 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 571 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 567 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 566 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 565 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 564 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 563 DOM
16. 2025-11-08
    price $159,900 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

17. 2024-11-13
    listed $179,900 Active 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$261
• After-tax cash flow: $1,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. Minor updates to the exterior and carpet would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — North Middleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schlusser, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $159,900 Zillow
• 2024-11-13 Listed $179,900 Zillow