509 Harbour North Dr · Chesapeake, VA 23320

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1970 1,698 sqft lot Est $219k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable home in Great Bridge minutes to Greenbrier mall $10K+ below fair market for TLC. Central heat pump less than 5 years old. Stainless appliances with new counter-depth energy saving refrigerator. Home has Living room, large combo Family room and dining room, a laundry room and a half bath on first floor. 2nd floor has 2 over-size bedrooms and a full bath.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Living room
• Family room

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT PUMP
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• ENERGY SAVING REFRIGERATOR
• LIVING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Attached townhouse; 2 stories; Two living levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and shingle siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Back fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Energy Star appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on 2nd floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable hookup; Ceiling fan; Vinyl flooring; Utility closet; Utility room; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (laundry/utility area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deep Creek Elementary (math 66% / reading 72%, grade A-, #351 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 763 students, 45% FRL); Crestwood Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 553 students, 71% FRL); Great Bridge High (math 60% / reading 87%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 1,624 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 28% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $195k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,578 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Harbour Dr N	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,226 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$188	81
705 Harbour North Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,227 (+5%)	1mo	$210,000	$171	81
405 Harbour North Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,216 (+4%)	4mo	$215,500	$177	80
809 Harbour North Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,226 (+5%)	5mo	$228,500	$186	77
600 Rue Saint La Rogue	0.72mi	2/2.5	1,158 (-0%)	2mo	$235,000	$203	62
508 Rue Saint La Rogue	0.74mi	2/2.5	1,158 (-0%)	3mo	$210,000	$181	60
818 Rue Marseille	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,140 (-2%)	3mo	$227,500	$200	59
924 Wickford Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,193 (+2%)	4mo	$248,000	$208	58
417 Cobblewood Arch	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-11%)	2mo	$295,000	$284	55
420 Cobblewood Arch	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (+10%)	4mo	$236,000	$184	54
836 Wickford Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,279 (+10%)	2mo	$230,000	$180	51
1013 Wickford Ct	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,280 (+10%)	3mo	$259,900	$203	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,229
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,168
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23320

• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $171,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-77	+0% $-133	+5% $-188	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-208	+0% $-133	+5% $-57	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-83	base $-133	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
906 Wickford Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.68mi
921 Wickford Dr Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,400	$1.32	0d	1	0.72mi
824 Huntly Dr Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1268	$1,750	$1.38	18d	1	0.85mi
208 Crosswinds Dr Chesapeake, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,910	$2.33	9d	2	1.32mi
208 Crosswinds Dr Unit 00 217104 Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.0	971	$1,910	$1.97	5d	1	1.33mi
103 Duffield Pl Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.37mi
1240 Basswood Ct Chesapeake, VA	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,925	$1.49	16d	1	1.38mi
1222 Corkwood Cir Chesapeake, VA	3.0	2.5	1185	$2,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.41mi
218 Fireweed Ct Chesapeake, VA	2.0	2.5	1144	$1,850	$1.62	22d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 366-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $195,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$6,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 59,108
• Household income: $84,305
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2714.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.43%
• Current HPI: 285.5792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.78%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+267.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $195,000 REINMLS
• 2021-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-07 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2020-10-30 Listed $53,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,292 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.