21 S Estate Dr · Webster, NY 14580

$179,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 946 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1976 $274/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adorable 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath end-unit condo in Webster offering comfort, convenience, and low HOA fees! Enjoy a bright and inviting living space with a dedicated dining area, attached garage, and full basement offering excellent storage or future finishing potential. Step outside to your private fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets. Located in a pet-friendly community, this home also features HVAC less than 10 years old for added peace of mind. A wonderful opportunity for easy, low-maintenance living! Delayed Neg. on file- Offers will be reviewed on 6/1/26

Key facts

• $274 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1976

Tags

• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• HVAC LESS THAN 10 YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Summit Knolls HOA with a $274 monthly fee covering common area maintenance, common area insurance, structure maintenance, snow removal, trash, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; See remarks for additional parking details
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Irregular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Circuit breaker electrical panel
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Sliding glass door(s); Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#221 in NY, #3,471 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Webster Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #184 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $180k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,833
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,303
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14580

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$274
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Deerhurst Ln Webster, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1070	$2,000	$1.87	2d	21	0.25mi
1205 Rousseau Dr Webster, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,206	$1.93	2d	3	0.35mi
1017 Waverton Cir Webster, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,712	$2.01	3d	2	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $274 · $3,288/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $179,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $179,900 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-26
   listed $179,900 Active
9. 1996-05-22
   soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,010 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,030/yr (+$86/mo · 105.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630360
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,221
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1273
• State rank: #184 of 590 in NY

Livability — Webster

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #3471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 54,180
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 54,180
• Household income: $98,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1325.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.52%
• Current HPI: 266.2145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,900 UNYREIS
• 1996-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $980 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.